Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Kirk from EV Insight

Christian KirkReceiving Yards

Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 61.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.69 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Christian Kirk has gone out for fewer passes this year (94.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (81.9%).

Cons

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Christian Kirk has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (68.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
Christian Kirk’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 72.6% to 68.2%.
The Houston Texans defense has conceded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 132.0) versus WRs this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards