Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kirk CousinsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Vikings vs. Cardinals
Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 265.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 265.5 (-110) after it opened @ 267.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Kirk Cousins has been among the top quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 254.0 yards per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 8th-most yards in the NFL (267.0 per game) against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year.
Cons
- The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
- The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
322
Passing Yards
322
Passing Yards
