NBA Best Bets of the Day (11/6)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops! I’m sure most of you were distracted with football, but it was an excellent weekend of NBA basketball. The Celtics juggernaut continues onward, the Grizzlies finally won a game, and Victor Wembanyama continues to look more and more like an alien.

We are primed for more NBA excellence with 12 games Monday ahead of the day off for all 30 teams for voting. It may not be a presidential election, but local and state elections are where your vote can be most impactful. Remember, the mayor from Jaws is still the mayor in Jaws 2.

For now, let’s dive into Monday night’s slate of games. Of course, you can check out the video version of this piece as well on the FTNBets YouTube channel. Please leave a comment there with any suggestions you might have for Hoops with Noops about what I could be doing better or even adding to these. Thanks and enjoy!

NBA Best Bets for Monday

Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers

Current Line – 76ers -11.5, 227.5
My Projection – 76ers 121, Wizards 108
Key Injuries – Deni Avdija and Daniel Gafford are questionable.

This is one of the more straightforward handicaps of the night. Neither team is in a bed schedule/rest spot and the injury report is pretty clean. Philadelphia is better at every position and has a better bench than Washington. The only real question is how the game goes. Will the 76ers run out to a big lead and leave the backdoor open in the fourth quarter, or will they start slow overlooking a lesser squad and need a big fourth quarter to cover a big number? Their matchup against Portland last week is comparable and, although it’s just a one-game sample, shows more the former scenario of a quick start. It’s too difficult to figure out and that uncertainty will keep me away from laying a big spread with Philadelphia. There is also a small chance Joel Embiid is rested since the 76ers can win without him. What I am sure of is that Tyrese Maxey is going to have a lot of chance to score points and I expect him to make good use of those opportunities. The now favorite to win the Most Improved Player award has shown All-Star and All NBA potential, averaging 26 PPG, 5 RPG and 6.5 APG with 47% shooting beyond the arc. The Wizards lack the tools to slow down Maxey especially off the bench. Maxey plays the entire second quarter for the 76ers, which gives him time against the opponent’s second unit, and he thrives in those spots. After two “down” games of 18 points against Toronto and 22 against Phoenix, I’m betting on Maxey to get at least 25 points Monday .

Bets

Tyrese Maxey 25+ Points (+150, DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.75U)
Tyrese Maxey 30+ Points (+450, DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.25U)

Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat

Current Line – Heat -1, 222.5
My Projection – Lakers 113, Heat 111
Key Injuries – Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt and Caleb Martin are out.

After losing with the Golden State Warriors in Cleveland Sunday, I find myself backing another Western Conference team as a short underdog on the road in Eastern Time. There are no rest concerns for the Lakers, who played in Orlando Saturday and were off Sunday. The Lakers’ next opponent is the Houston Rockets, which would be a spot for them to rest players or limit their minutes instead of Monday. These are two marquee teams with all their key players healthy that will treat this as a possible NBA Finals preview. I think the wrong team is favored. Miami is one of the better homecourt advantages, but even with that is not enough for me to expect them to win. The Heat have had a messy start to the season as they reintegrate Tyler Herro, establish a new starting five, and organize a short bench. Their two victories are close wins over bad teams and three of their four losses were against good teams and also not close losses. There’s always a chance Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Erik Spoelstra use their big game magic in early November, but that seems unlikely to me. The Lakers matchup well up and down the roster. I’m betting that Los Angeles wins in Miami.

Bets

Los Angeles Lakers ML (+100, FanDuel Sportsbook or BetMGM)

Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets

Current Line – Kings -1.5, 218.5
My Projection – Kings 112, Rockets 107
Key Injuries – De’Aaron Fox, Tori Eason and Victor Oladipo are out.

We bet on the Sacramento -2.5 at Houston Saturday, so we’ve got to bet on them -1.5 at Houston, right? Looking at that game, a Rockets 107-89 victory, the Kings had arguably their worst shooting performance of the season in a game with a slower pace than they’re used to playing. Part of their struggle is the lack of De’Aaron Fox, but they managed to score efficiently without him last season. Sacramento’s starters, who average close to 60 points per game, scored just 42. The Rockets played a solid game, but no to the level needed to beat the Kings most nights. There are a lot of reasons to expect positive regression from the Kings tonight, I see no reason for the market to adjust this spread by one point from Saturday, and I’m projected a five-point victory. Let’s back the Kings either on the ML at -125 or better or at -2 -110 or better. These prices have been moving, so I wanted to give you some ranges. I prefer the ML at -125 or better. If you can’t get that, look for a spread of -2 at -110 or better and bet that. If neither is available, well, sorry, you need to get into the FTN Discord to get these plays as soon as possible.

Bets

Sacramento Kings ML (-120, FanDuel Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook)

Utah Jazz at Chicago Bulls

Current Line – Bulls -3.5, 223
My Projection – Bulls 111, Jazz 108
Key Injuries – None.

One of the little facts about sports betting is that you don’t have to watch a game just because you have a bet on it. With that in mind, let me present you a great opportunity to go to bed early and just check the score when you wake up. It’s Bulls vs. Jazz! This really could, and should, be a painful display of basketball. Both teams are hanging on the cliff of a teardown and rebuild. Utah started that process last season but seems to have settled for now despite having a below-average roster and no potential star players. Chicago is in its fourth season with largely the same roster despite having a winning record just once in the last three seasons. Neither team has good point guard who will drive pace and create movement on offense. The Bulls shoot the fourth-most 2-point baskets as a percentage of their total attempts of any team in the NBA and play at the second-slowest pace. The Jazz embrace the 3-point shot and play at an above average pace but are in the bottom third of the NBA in effective field goal rate. There is little to no reason to expect many points in this game, let alone the 223 offered in the betting markets. So, bet the under and either you’ll wake up with more money than when you went to sleep, or you will have slept instead of watching Zach LaVine and Jordan Clarkson each chuck their way to 50-plus points or something stupid like that.