Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today
New York Yankees @ Atlanta Braves
Yankees +184 @ Braves -220 — Total 10 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
We’re heading back to Atlanta for Tuesday’s free play – It’s safe to expect this to be a popular bet, so let’s get to it before it moves out of range.
In a contract season, Luis Severino is suffering through the worst stretch of his career. The right-handed pitcher has made six starts since July 1 and has picked up one win and five losses. He’s thrown 27.2 innings in those six starts, posting an 11.71 ERA, 2.39 WHIP, 7.75 FIP, 5.13 SIERA and a hard-hit percentage of 55.6%. Batters are making contact on over 87% of Severino’s pitches inside the strike zone, about four percent higher than his career average. Batters are hitting just under .400 against Severino in the timeframe. They’re slashing .398/.456/.744 off the 29-year-old, as he’s surrounded 10 home runs in those 27+ innings. Severino is only striking out 16.3% of batters, posting a strikeouts-minus-walks in single-digits at 7.5% K-BB%.
The bad news for Sevy is he’s set to face the toughest offense he’s seen in through this rough stretch. The Braves offense isn’t showing any signs of slowing down, as they continue to lead the majors in most categories. Their 122 wRC+ against right-handed pitching is the best in MLB, and that number is even higher over the last 30 days at 140. Nobody in the Show has a higher wOBA (.361), hard hit percentage (46.6%), expected batting average (.273) or expected slugging percentage (.501) than Atlanta. The Dodgers — who have the second-best expected slugging — sit nearly 50 points behind the Bravos at .453. Atlanta also leads the league in home runs with 229, more than 40 dongs ahead of Los Angeles who sits in second. The Braves 5.89 runs a game is the best in MLB and they’re scoring even more runs at home at 6.09.
I don’t think many are projecting Severino to pitch well in Atlanta Tuesday night. It’s tough to expect the righty to complete five innings, even if Boone leaves him out there to throw close to 100 pitches. As always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.
Bets
Braves TT Over 5.5 (-132, FanDuel Sportsbook)
