Best MLB Bets Today – Free (July 7/17)

Welcome to FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite MLB bets today.

Today, Chris Meaney provides his picks for Monday.

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The Best MLB Props Bets 

Luis Severino OVER 1.5 Walks

(-108, Caesars)

It’s been a rough go for Luis Severino this season as he enters tonight’s start in Anaheim with a 7.38 ERA. The Yankees’ pitcher has coughed up seven earned runs in each of his last two starts and in three of his nine outings this season. He’s served up 11 homers in his 42.2 innings and he’s walking an alarming 4.01 batters per nine innings. Severino has issued at least two free passes in six of his nine starts this season. 

On top of that, Severino has allowed at least six hits in six of his last seven starts, so consider the over on his 5.5-hit prop at -110 (BET MGM). His 82.6% contact rate is by far the highest mark of his career and it would be one of the highest marks in baseball if he had the innings to qualify. 

In 22.1 road innings this season, Severino has surrendered 36 hits, seven doubles, six homers, 23 runs, and 11 walks. Opponents are slashing .360/.425/.610 with a .439 wOBA against Severino away from Yankee Stadium. 

I understand the Angels have struggled of late but they managed to score 26 runs in a three-game series with the Astros over the weekend. They have the eighth-highest walk rate and sixth-highest over the last month (9.7%).

Bonus

• Luis Severino OVER 5.5 Hits  (-110, BetMGM)
• Red Sox OVER 4.5 Runs (-115, DraftKings)