Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Saturday 6/3)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins 

Guardians +120 @ Twins -142 — Total 7.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

We’re returning to Target Field Saturday for the third of a four-game set between the Guardians and Twins. Tanner Bibee got the six strikeouts we needed to cash Thursday, and I’ve found another edge in the K market in this divisional matchup Saturday.

Rookie Logan Allen has made seven big-league starts, posting a 2.72 ERA and a 2.93 FIP through 39.2 innings. Allen’s K% sits at 25%, the same as Bibee’s entering Thursday night’s matchup but the righty’s strikeout prop opens a full punchout below Bibee’s at 4.5. Allen has posted a 13.2% swinging-strike percentage so far in 2023, which is tied with Kevin Gausman for 10th in the American League. Allen has gone over this number in five of his seven career starts, and one of those misses was by the hook. Allen’s two best swing-and-miss pitches are his sweeper and changeup. The 24-year-old throws his sweeper 25.9% of the time and it carries a 28.9% K% and 35.9% whiff percentage. His changeup has a 40.7% whiff percentage and a 37.5% strikeout percentage. He features his changeup 19.8% of the time. 

At the plate, the Twinkies have the second-highest strikeout percentage in the majors against right-handed pitching at 26.2% and that number has increased to 27.7% in May – the highest in baseball. Overall, their 12.6% swinging-strike percentage is the worst in MLB. They’re the only team in MLB to average double-digit punchouts this season at 10.16. Only two clubs have posted a higher K percentage against changeups at 27.3% than Minnesota, which bodes well for Allen. 

I’m projecting Logan Allen to pitch five-plus innings and K the five or six Twins we need to cash. As always, check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market.

Bet

Logan Allen Over 4.5 K’s (-128, FanDuel Sportsbook)