Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Saturday 5/6)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres 

Dodgers +115 @ Padres -135 — Total 8.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

We head to Petco Park Saturday evening as the Dodgers and Padres battle in San Diego, in what has become one of my favorite divisional matchups. Fernando Tatis Jr. hit two dongs Friday night that sent the San Diego crowd into a frenzy as the Padres won 5-2. I don’t have an opinion on a side in this one, but I found an edge in the strikeout prop market. 

Blake Snell hasn’t found his dominant form through six games this season, but we’re starting to see him flash his elite swing-and-miss stuff. The lefty has posted a swinging-strike percentage of 14.7% or better in two of his last three outings. Snell’s whiff% ranks in the 89th percentile so far this year. His K% this season is down about 5% from his career mark but we saw a similar slow start last year and I expect that number to increase today as this matchup bodes well for the southpaw. However, Snell’s curveball and sliders have been dominant, as they carry a 57.7% K% and 35.7% K%, respectively. The Dodgers have the seventh-most punchouts against sliders this year, so that will be a big pitch for Snell here. 

Los Angeles has the fourth-highest strikeout percentage against left-handed pitchers this season at 27.5% and over the last two weeks, that number is the highest in the majors at 30.7%. LAD has the third-lowest contact rate on pitches outside the strike zone at 58.1%. — overall their contact rate ranks ninth lowest in the majors. 

The Dodgers aren’t an easy matchup, but Snell should be able to make it through six innings today and punch out the seven batters we need to cash. As always, check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market. 

Bet

Blake Snell Over 6.5 K’s (-130, DraftKings Sportsbook)