Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
This is a solid slate of NBA games for a Thursday evening. Normally we only have three or four games on Thursdays, but we have seven this time. The Warriors travel to Denver to take on the Nuggets, but that line smells a little fishy with the Nuggets being 12-point favorites. Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are listed as questionable. The line pretty much tells you those guys are very unlikely to play. The other six games are all relatively close spreads at -6 or below. Make sure to get over to the NBA bet tracker for all of the day’s plays, but for now here are my three NBA best bets for the slate.
Best NBA Total Bet
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Los Angeles Clippers Under 231.5
This number is down to 230.5 on most books with a little bit of 230 juiced up on others. I know both teams have had some extreme point totals recently, but those were against super-fast-paced teams that play no defense like San Antonio for the Clippers and Detroit or Indiana for the Bucks. When Milwaukee faces evenly matched teams in close games, the final scores tend to be in the 220 range. At 231, our edge on this game is one of the biggest we have on the day to the under.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Jaren Jackson Over 14.5 Points
This number feels a bit light. It’s not the greatest matchup for Jaren Jackson against the Cavs, but he has seen 34 and 38 minutes in the last two games with Steven Adams out. Jackson has topped 15 points in four of his last five games, including the last two when he saw 30-plus minutes. It’s juiced down and the number feels at least a point or two light given his recent uptick in minutes and scoring.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Bam Adebayo Over 9.5 Rebounds
Bam Adebayo has averaged 10 rebounds per game this year. In nine of the last 14 he has grabbed double-digit rebounds. The Heat have some bench players in the frontcourt listed as out, which is why Adebayo has routinely played 35 or more minutes in six straight games. The Knicks are without their starting center too, so his matchup will be with guys like Isaiah Hartenstein, Jericho Sims and maybe a little Julius Randle. This sets up well for him to continue his strong play of late. We project Bam over 12 rebounds, so there’s a big edge on this number.
