NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/31)

NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games. 

I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.

Let’s get to it. 

Kelly Olynyk Over 9.5 Points

(-125, BetMGM)

Kelly Olynyk has gone over this number in seven of his last 10, and my model projects him for 12.15 points Saturday. Miami has been tough defensively, but they have been allowing a lot of threes, the fourth most in the NBA this season, while also ranking 25th in 3PM%. This could be a nice where we see Olynyk get hot from three. 

Christian Wood Over 19.5 Points

(-135, Caesars)

Christian Wood has taken up some additional usage and playing time lately with Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber sidelined, and now he gets a great matchup against the Spurs, who rank 30th in points allowed and field goal percentage this season. My model projects Wood for 21.4 points. 

Jeremy Sochan Over 2.5 Assists

(-144, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Jeremy Sochan has taken over a new role as of late, being much more involved in the offense with increased usage rates over the last two weeks up over 22%. Now, Devin Vassell will likely be out once again as he is listed doubtful, so that usage should continue for Sochan. Over his last 10 games, Sochan has at least 3 assists in eight of those. My model projects him for nearly 4 assists. 

Kyle Lowry Over 17.5 Points + Rebounds

(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Jimmy Butler has been ruled out, and that should lead to increased opportunity for Kyle Lowry. Lowry gets a matchup against the Jazz, who rank 23rd in points allowed, and 20th in rebounds allowed. My model projects Lowry for over 15 points and nearly 5 rebounds.