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Chris Meaney
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Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees
Over 6 runs -120 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
After a rainy night in the Bronx Thursday, the Yankees/Guardians game was moved to Friday, and I think we will see some runs in this matchup. In three postseason games this season, Cleveland has scored just three runs to the Yankees’ four in one game, but Friday, both offenses should come to life.
This is not a numbers play. The lines are super efficient in all three games Friday, so this is more of a feeling. These pitchers have pitched to the under too frequently that something has got to give. Both Nestor Cortes and Shane Bieber have been fantastic this season and neither pitcher lets up a ton of runs. However, given the magnitude of this game, and how cold these offenses have been, I have an inkling they both come to life here.
Shane Bieber has been excellent this season, but he has not been as good as he was when he won the Cy Young. His fastball velocity is down a little bit, and he lets up a lot of home runs. Yankees Stadium is a hitters’ ballpark, so if Bieber does not have his best stuff, we should certainly see a homerun or two, as we saw in his Wild Card start.
On the road this season, Bieber had a 2.65 ERA, a .235 batting average against, a .271 on-base percentage against, a .352 slugging percentage against, a 2.86 FIP and a 1.07 WHIP. He allowed just one run in his Wild Card start and he did not face the Yankees this season.
Nestor Cortes will take the mound for the Yankees at home. Cortes faced the Guardians back in April and allowed two runs on one hit in 6.1 innings of work at home. Cortes has not allowed more than four earned runs in any game this season.
At home this season, Cortes has been lights out. He pitched to a 1.95 ERA, a .161 batting average against, a .222 on-base percentage against, a .246 slugging percentage against, a 2.68 FIP and a 0.82 WHIP. Two of his last three home starts have gone over this total of 6 runs.
As I mentioned earlier, I did not find a ton of value on the board Friday in any of the three games. However, given this matchup, I find the most value in over six runs in this matchup. Both of these offenses are due for a bounceback and this afternoon in the Bronx is a great time for it.
Bet: Over 6 runs -120 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
