Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Saturday 10/8)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians

Guardians -107 (Caesars)
Rays -103 @ Guardians -107 Total 6 (Caesars)

The Rays face elimination Saturday as they take on the Guardians in Game 2 of a best-of-three series. The game is lined close to a pick ’em, but my numbers found an edge on the money line with Triston McKenzie taking the ball for Cleveland. 

McKenzie has been dominant over his last 11 starts, posting a 2.73 FIP along with a 24% strikeout percentage. When the righty isn’t missing bats, he’s doing an elite job inducing the weakest contact. Over that stretch, the 25-year-old has a 17.9% infield fly ball percentage. For the season he ranks fourth overall in MLB with a 14% IFFB%. Now, an infield popup may not be as flashy as a strikeout, but it’s almost just as effective. McKenzie has enjoyed the best season of his young career in 2022, ranking in the top 25 in ERA, SIERA, and FIP. His 25.6% K% ranks 13th-best in the majors, just slightly ahead of teammate Shane Bieber (25% K%). 

Make no mistake about it: Tampa’s bats aren’t the reason they’re in the playoffs, as they’ve been just about league average against right-handed pitching in 2022. Their 99 wRC+ (1% below league average) ranks 16th in all of baseball. However, since the beginning of September they rank fourth worst in MLB with an 85 wRC+ (15% below league average) against righties. The Rays averaged 4.09 runs this season, which ranks 10th worst in the show. 

Tyler Glasnow is on the bump for Tampa; he will be limited to 80-85 pitches in his third start since being activated off the injured list. The righty faced this Guardians club in his first big-league start back from Tommy John surgery. Glasnow allowed one run in three innings, while striking out three Guardians. The 29-year-old wasn’t able to generate a single swing-and-miss on pitches in the strike zone, posting a 100% Z-Contact%. It’s a small sample but in his first two starts Glasnow’s swinging-strike percentage (SwStr%) is over 3% lower than it was last year. His velocity was there in his first outing (98.3 MPH) but that did dip down (97.1 MPH) in his most recent start against the Red Sox. He was more effective against Boston, but his Z-Contact percentage is more than 8% higher than 2021. 

The Guardians offense has done just enough this season, but unlike most teams that advanced to the postseason, they don’t do it with the long ball. Cleveland has the second-fewest home runs in baseball in 2022, while scoring 4.29 runs per game (19th). The Guardians are an elite contact team, posting the lowest K% in baseball at 18.2%. Cleveland has stolen the third most bases this season, small-ball and timely hitting has worked for Tito’s club in 2022. The Guardians have the 11th-best wRC+ in baseball versus right-handed pitching, 104 wRC+ (4% above league average). 

The market and bookmakers are expecting another low scoring affair in Cleveland Saturday, with a full game total at 5.5 & 6 at most shops. I’m projecting McKenzie to pitch six innings and limit the Rays to two earned runs or less. As the Guardians offense does just enough (like they’ve done for most of the season) to pull out a win. Be sure to check out FTN’s Live Odds Page to grab the best number on the market. 

Bet: Guardians -107