The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (7/15)

Slate PPD due to Yankees COVID protocols.

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek.

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

Red Sox (-110), Yankees (-110)
Total: 9.5 runs
Eduardo Rodríguez (L) vs. Domingo Germán (R)

Three things to know

• This is the only game Thursday as we return from the All-Star break, as the remaining teams take the field Friday.
• Domingo Germán’s xFIP (4.44) lines up nicely with his ERA (4.39). The righty has been mediocre with 1.78 HR/9 causing him some issues.
• Eduardo Rodríguez has been far better from an advanced indicator perspective (3.37 xFIP) than his ERA (5.52) indicates, thanks to a whopping 27.0% strikeout rate.

Best bets: The books see this one as a toss-up, but if you get any juice on the Boston side, I would take it. German has been average at best lately.