Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to the prop bet tracker. As MLB season gets into high gear, another way to get in on the action is to analyzes the day’s best prop bets – from strikeouts to home runs, first to five runs to total bases logged.
Each day, we will try and identify a few picks that are ready to explode in the prop market.
Aaron Civale Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-128, BetMGM)
While there's plenty of Indians hurlers who have been overhyped this season (like Zach Plesac), Civale is one I truly think has the potential to be a star. For starters, this number is just too low — Civale has struck out six in three of his four turns this year, and the Twins, are striking out at a 24.5% clip. Plesac was not great Monday, but expect Civale to step up.
Walker Buehler Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-135, BetMGM)
Look, you won't find a bigger Walker Buehler stan than me. I think the dude is a true superstar, and the Dodgers have five absolute studs in that rotation. But this Reds offense Buehler locks horns with Tuesday is really talented — they have logged a .335 wOBA this season, and their strikeout rate of 23.7% is one of the best in baseball (eighth-toughest). Buehler has logged only four whiffs in three of his outings this season, and I think the under is definitely in play.
Carlos Martínez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135, SugarHouse)
If this line gives you any indication on how oddsmakers feel right now, FanDuel posted this line, but under 5.5 strikeouts, not 4.5. I think that line is way, way too high, and here's why. First and foremost, the Cardinals’ mercurial starter has been bad. He did lock in against Max Scherzer in a travel day game last Thursday, but that was the best outing of 2021 for Martínez — and it came with three strikeouts. Tonight, he will face a potent Phillies offense that is prone to the whiff (26.6% strikeout rate), but they are also a tough out (.310 wOBA). I don't believe in Martínez and his stuff.
