Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Chicago Bears

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: The Monsters of the Midway.

Booms

Allen Robinson, WR

The Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy football wide receivers, Robinson got no respect heading into last season. His ADP settled out as the No. 31 wide receiver, which made him a seventh-round pick in 12-team leagues. To call him a value in that spot is a big understatement, as he went on to finish seventh at the position. That’s no small feat with Mitchell Trubisky under center. Robinson posted five top-10 weeks and nearly cracked triple-digit catches.

Heading into this season, he should get a slight upgrade at quarterback with Nick Foles favored to win the job. Unfortunately, the secret is out on Robinson, and you aren’t going to get a discount this year. That said, he has more than enough boom to be worth grabbing after the first half-dozen wideouts are off the board. — Jeff Ratcliffe

David Montgomery , RB

The body count from the “Big Noise Kiss of Death” ranks up there with any John Wick flick. Over the years, this hair-vanquished imbecile prematurely ended the careers of such “league winners” as Ryan Mathews, Montee Ball and Royce Freeman. Despondently, Montgomery, and all of the related Mandatory hashtags, added to my ever-increasing line of victims. If you tailed, blame this always-accepting scapegoat. 

Myriad reasons — my issued curse not included — explain why the former Iowa State Cyclone flattened fantasy rosters and shredded postseason hopes. Matt Nagy’s bullheadedness deploying Cohen up the gut or Cordarrelle Patterson inside the red-zone combined with Chicago’s inept run-blocking (No. 20 in adjusted line yards allowed in ‘19) greatly hampered the then rookie’s efforts. Montgomery, too, didn’t exactly deliver the goods even in exploitable situations — he ranked outside the position’s top-40 in yards after contact per attempt and yards created per touch.

Determined to right last year’s wrongs, Monty is an excellent Round 4 target for one reason: Volume. Without much competition for touches and expected to take on a larger role in the pass game, he’s a strong 260- to 280-touch candidate. The grizzlies up front will need to galvanize, but he possesses the shimmy and shake to slip defenders en route to 1,200-plus total yards with 7-9 touchdowns. 

Double down? Sure. What could possibly go wrong?! — Brad Evans

Busts

David Montgomery, RB

Don’t get me wrong. This isn’t a knock on Montgomery as a player. Heck, I really like him. But the problem with Montgomery is how the Bears backfield is set up. With Tarik Cohen in place, there’s simply no way Montgomery can be a true bell cow.

There are a variety of ways we can define bell cow status. Some look at touches, but that method is a bit flawed since the implied value of a catch is much higher than that of a carry. One way to negate this is to use expected fantasy points. Using this method, a bell cow back as any player who accounted for at least 60% of his team’s running back expected fantasy points. Last season, Montgomery did not reach that threshold. He finished the year ranked 19th running backs with 49.6%, but Cohen was just four spots behind him at 44.7%.

This split between Cohen and Montgomery isn’t likely to change in 2020. With that in mind, it’s a good idea to temper your expectations for Montgomery. He certainly is capable of outplaying his current ADP as the No. 24 running back off the board, but not by much. Any expectation of him breaking out in 2020 is just too ambitious as long as Cohen is one the field. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Tarik Cohen, RB

The Human Joystick suffered from a nasty case of sticky buttons last year. Finishing RB38 in 0.5 PPR formats, he was sporadically useful as a flex or RB2 plug-in during bye-heavy weeks. The inchworm averaged 4.9 receptions per game and checked in at No. 10 in total receiving yards. 

However, beyond his superficial contributions, Cohen exhibited the efficiency of a wheelless Yugo. He was near the basement in myriad categories including yards after contact per attempt (1.94), missed tackle percentage (15.4), total yards created (RB67) and … the list goes on. Nagy’s lack of creativity is partially to blame, but Cohen isn’t absolved of any wrongdoing. Plain and simple, he was dreadful, a poor poor man’s James White. 

PPR-focused gamers will find him attractive in the middle rounds, but rookie Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Phillip Lindsay and Jordan Howard are better options available around the ursine’s 93.0 (RB38) ADP. — Brad Evans

Breakouts

Anthony Miller, WR

Miller absolutely screams fantasy upside, but the now-third-year man has only posted six top-30 weekly finishes over the past two seasons. Of course, three of those came over his final six games last season. During that stretch, Miller averaged nearly seven targets per game and ranked 21st among wide receivers in fantasy scoring.

So the potential is certainly there with Miller, but that only gets you so far in fantasy football. In addition to his inconsistencies, we also need to consider the Bears quarterback situation. While he isn’t a major upgrade, Foles could help with Miller’s consistency. Given his upside, Miller is worth targeting when you get into the late rounds. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Anthony Miller, WR

Studying up on the game’s greatest after-catch receivers (e.g. Steve Smith Sr., Isaac Bruce and Stefon Diggs) this offseason, Miller is determined to amplify his numbers. Putting in the film work while recovering from offseason shoulder surgery is a development Bears WR coach Mike Furrey believes will unlock the young receiver’s potential. 

Though his numbers over the long haul underwhelmed last year, Miller showed signs down the stretch he’s primed for a production advance. In Weeks 11-15, he amassed a 48-33-431-2 line, averaged 13.1 yards per catch and racked a rock-solid 4.12 yards after contact per catch. His resulting WR9 standing in 0.5 PPR leagues was merely an appetizer. If his offseason dedications pay off and projected starter Foles can at least execute at a semi-competent level, Miller will reward his backers with a handsome profit (ADP: 122.5, WR50). — Brad Evans