NBA DFS Preview – First Look (3/28)

Monday presents a solid nine-game DFS slate with a ton of injuries around the NBA, which really shouldn’t be too surprising, especially towards the end of March.

Be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for March 28 | NBA DFS First Look

Denver Nuggets @ Charlotte Hornets

DEN -3, total: 233.5
Pace: DEN (20th), CHA (5th)

Situations to monitor:

• JaMychal Green (wrist) is listed as questionable.

Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers

CLE -9, total: 216.5
Pace: ORL (10th), CLE (26th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jarrett Allen, Rajon Rondo and Dean Wade remain out for Cleveland.
• Jalen Suggs (ankle) has been ruled out for Orlando.

Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers

ATL -7.5, total: 235
Pace: ATL (19th), IND (17th)

Situations to monitor:

• Malcolm Brogdon will remain sidelined for the Pacers, while Isaiah Jackson and Chris Duarte are also out. Meanwhile, Myles Turner, Goga Bitadze and Duane Washington are listed as questionable.
• For Atlanta, John Collins remains out, while Bogdan Bogdanovic is listed as questionable.

Sacramento Kings @ Miami Heat

MIA -12.5, total: 216.5
Pace: SAC (7th), MIA (29th)

Situations to monitor:

• Both De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis are out for the Kings. 
• Tyler Herro, P.J. Tucker and Caleb Martin are listed as questionable.

Chicago Bulls @ New York Knicks

CHI -3.5, total: 218.5
Pace: CHI (16th), NYK (26th)

Situations to monitor:

• Quentin Grimes is listed as questionable.

Boston Celtics @ Toronto Raptors

TOR -4.5, total: 212.5
Pace: BOS (24th), TOR (25th)

Situations to monitor:

• Both Robert Williams and Al Horford are unlikely to play for Boston. Meanwhile, Jayson Tatum might sit out the second end of a back-to-back.
• Gary Trent (toe) is listed as questionable for Toronto. Malachi Flynn remains out.

San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets

SAS -7.5, total: 234.5
Pace: SAS (4th), HOU (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

• Devin Vassell and Lonnie Walker are listed as questionable for San Antonio.

Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies

MEM -10.5, total: 221.5
Pace: GSW (15th), MEM (3rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Stephen Curry remains out for the Warriors, while Klay Thompson and Draymond Green will likely be out for this game.
• Ja Morant remains out for Memphis, while Jaren Jackson (thigh) is listed as questionable.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers

OKC -2.5, total: 221
Pace: OKC (13th), POR (13th)

Situations to monitor:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (ankle) has been ruled out, along with almost every other player from this game.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Christian Wood vs. San Antonio Spurs

Wood’s minutes have been a bit all over the place, largely due to the Rockets playing in so many blowouts. But as long as this game stays competitive on Monday, there will be a serious ceiling. San Antonio is coughing up the most points per game to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll this season (9.3), while also allowing the sixth-highest field goal percentage off the play type (54.7%). That bodes well for Wood, who is averaging a healthy 3.4 such points per game this year, while shooting nearly 54% from the field off the play type. San Antonio is also surrendering the sixth-most points per game (24.68) and fourth-most rebounds per game (16.68) to opposing centers. 

Dejounte Murray vs. Houston Rockets

On the other side of this game, you have to love Murray on seemingly every slate, but especially against an awful Rockets defense. This game features two teams that rank inside the top-five in pace, which is great for Murray, who is averaging nearly four transition points per game this season, while shooting an outstanding 61.3% off the play type. Houston, meanwhile, is coughing up a league-worst 25.0 transition points per game on the year, while also allowing an 18.8% frequency rate off the play type, the highest rate in the NBA. In three meetings against the Rockets this season, Murray is averaging just under 60 fantasy points per game, and I think he exceeds that number Monday.

Jaylen Brown vs. Toronto Raptors

Brown is absolutely in play regardless of the Celtics’ situation today. But if Jayson Tatum doesn’t play, Brown becomes a core play. Boston is already going to be without both Robert Williams and Al Horford in the frontcourt, but Tatum might sit on the second end of a back-to-back. With all three players off the floor this season, Brown’s usage rate is at 34.4%, while sporting a 23% rebounding rate and averaging 1.57 fantasy points per minute in the split. And while the matchup on paper doesn’t look amazing, the Raptors are allowing the most spot-up points per game in basketball (31.9), while Brown is averaging the third-most points per game off the play type (6.3). And with the added usage he’d see, you honestly just throw matchup out the window at that point.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Daniel Theis vs. TOR — Theis is in line to play more minutes with both Al Horford and Robert Williams out Monday. With both players off the floor this season, Theis’ rebounding rate is north of 30%, while also averaging a solid 1.11 fantasy points per minute in the split.