NFL Week 9 FTN Staff Bets
FTN Staff
We have a small three-game DFS slate in the NBA Tuesday, with two of the three featuring a ton of potential fantasy goodness. The story of the slate is obviously going to be the Clippers, but it isn’t as appealing as a situation given the bump in price tags.
Let’s make some sense of these three games and see what stands out.
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Los Angeles Clippers @ Atlanta Hawks
ATL -3.5, total: 221.5
To say there is a lot of news from this game would be an understatement.
Let’s start with the Clippers, who will be without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George after they didn’t make the trip to Atlanta. They could miss all of this week’s action due to the health and safety protocols. This obviously opens up a ton of opportunities for the rest of the Clippers, as both Leonard and George were sporting usage rates right around 30%. With both players off the floor this season, Luke Kennard sees a massive 9.8% bump in usage rate, while averaging right around a fantasy point per minute. DraftKings did price Kennard up to $6,000 due to the news but this is a three-game slate, making him a lot more viable than if it were a larger slate of games. Serge Ibaka also sees a huge bump in usage, as his usage rate jumps up by 8.3% with both stars off the court. However, he has only played 4.7 minutes with both players sidelined this season and their absences don’t guarantee that Ibaka will suddenly play huge minutes, making him viable at $6,600 but a bit riskier than you might think. If looking for actual value, perhaps Terance Mann can get up to the 25-minute range here. He’s played the most minutes out of anyone on the team with both Leonard and George off the floor (79.1), while sporting a solid 27% rebounding rate in the split. However, I think the top member from this team is probably Marcus Morris, who should play 32-35 minutes and is $4,700 on DraftKings. Finally, Lou Williams’ usage rate has dropped by about 6% from last year, while we know the production and minutes have been down, too. He’s one of the few key Clippers that remains under $6,000 on DraftKings tonight and should handle the ball a ton with Leonard, George and Patrick Beverley out.
For the Hawks, Trae Young is once again questionable with a back issue, while Clint Capela (hand) is also questionable. Both missed Atlanta’s last game Sunday, which led to Rajon Rondo and Onyeka Okongwu entering the starting lineup. Rondo would be viable if Young sits again, as he logged 30 minutes over the weekend and is sporting a 34% assist rate and 1.12 fantasy points per minute with Young and Capela off the floor this season. We also see more involvement from John Collins last game, as he touched the ball 81 times, well up from his 56.8 per game average for the season. Collins played 37 minutes and is sporting a 27% rebounding rate with both Young and Capela off the court. I do, however, expect both Capela and Young to play in this game, but keep an eye on their status throughout the day.
Washington Wizards @ Houston Rockets
HOU -3.5, total: 232.5
While the Wizards got Russell Westbrook back last game, they are still missing a ton of players due to health and safety protocols. Rui Hachimura, Davis Bertans, Deni Avdija, Ish Smith, Troy Brown and Mo Wagner all remain out. In their last game, the Wizards started Jerome Robinson and Isaac Bonga and Robinson would be a very strong value play again tonight and would see an even larger uptick in usage if Westbrook’s minutes remain limited in that 25-30 range. He took 15 shots in 35 minutes the other night and will be hard to get away from at $4,000 on DraftKings. You can also take a shot on Bonga, who played 32 minutes last game, though he’s not a very high-usage player. Of course, this offense should continue to run through Bradley Beal, who still dominates the usage when sharing the floor with Westbrook, as he is sporting a 35% usage rate with Russ on the floor this season. He should be over $10,000 on DraftKings, especially given the slate, so I have a ton of interest in Beal here.
The Rockets will likely remain without Christian Wood, who is listed as doubtful for this game. That means DeMarcus Cousins should probably be in your lineup, as he is sporting a 29.7% usage rate over the last two games with Wood sidelined, while posting totals of 37 and 58 fantasy points during that span. And keep in mind that he scored 37 fantasy points in a game where he shot just 2-of-16 from the field. In nearly 200 minutes with Wood off the floor this season, Cousins is sporting a strong 26.9% usage rate and 46% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.44 fantasy points per minute. Washington plays at one of the fastest paces in basketball, which should present Cousins with plenty of possessions and rebounding chances, while the matchup is strong, as the Wizards are allowing the second-most points per possession to the post (1.09), as well as the second-highest field goal percentage off the play type (58.5%). Houston did get John Wall back the other night, who missed the previous five games due to an injury. At $6,900 on DraftKings, he’s pretty interesting here, and I expect his minutes to ramp back up closer to the 30-minute range, especially here against his former team. His return, as well as the presence of Victor Oladipo, takes me completely off Eric Gordon, who has seen his price tag push the $7,000 range.
New York Knicks @ Utah Jazz
UTA -10.5, total: 210.5
This game is pretty gross and if it were a larger slate, it would probably be a full-fade. No team in basketball is playing at a slower pace than the Knicks, while Utah is 21st in pace. Meanwhile, both these teams rank inside the top-five in defensive efficiency this season. I am intrigued by Rudy Gobert at $7,200 on DraftKings and if New York can keep this game close, Gobert could have a very good game. You know you’re getting rebounds from Gobert, as he ranks second in the NBA in rebounding chances per game on the year (22.9). New York is allowing the eighth-most rebounds per game to opposing centers this season (15.4), while also coughing up a league-leading 3.60 blocks per game to the position, which is definitely something we are looking for when targeting Gobert. He is easily my favorite player from the Jazz Tuesday and likely the only one I am actively targeting.
For New York, Julius Randle certainly has the ceiling and won’t be very popular on this slate, but it just isn’t an exciting game. RJ Barrett only played 23 minutes last night but is usually in that 36- to 38-minute range, while his price has come down a bit. Austin Rivers returned to the lineup on Monday night and played 29 minutes off the bench and with Reggie Bullock out, I think you could actually take a shot on either Rivers or Alec Burks, who are both relatively high-usage players.
