WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys game for Week 5.
Week 5 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
SF -3.5, O/U 45
Pace: DAL: 27.6 sec/snap (21st), SF: 31.0 sec/snap (31st)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Tony Pollard is third among running backs in expected fantasy points (78.5).
- He has scored 14.3 fantasy points fewer than expected.
- San Francisco is allowing 8.0 targets per game to pass-catchers lined up in the slot (sixth most).
- CeeDee Lamb has lined up from the slot 66.3% of the time this season.
- Christian McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in 13 consecutive games.
Quarterback
There hasn’t been much of a ceiling with Dak Prescott this season, largely due to the fact that the Cowboys keep blowing teams out. He is averaging just 13.9 fantasy points per game and has yet to finish as a top-12 quarterback. The interesting thing is that he is still throwing a good bit, even in blowouts, attempting at least 34 passes in each of his last three games. The problem has been that there’s been minimal downfield usage, as just 8.1% of his pass attempts have traveled 20 yards down the field (27th), while Prescott is averaging just 5.4 intended air yards per pass attempt, the lowest rate in the league. I wouldn’t suddenly expect a ton of upside on the road against a San Francisco defense that is allowing the second-fewest yards per pass attempt (5.4) and fifth-lowest passing touchdown rate (2.3%). I’d avoid Prescott this week if possible.
Running Back
After his strong start in Week 1, Tony Pollard has slowed down a bit, failing to find the end zone since. As expected, Pollard’s insane efficiency has come down due to an uptick in volume, which is a fair trade off. Pollard is averaging 22 touches per game on the year, while 78.5 expected fantasy points are the third-most among running backs. However, he has scored 14.3 fantasy points fewer than expected but with his league-leading 16 carries inside the 10-yard line, Pollard is due for some huge weeks. It may not happen this week against one of the best run defenses in football but Pollard can make up for it with usage in the passing game. San Francisco is allowing the fourth-most receptions (6.3) and third-most targets (8.3) per game to opposing backfields.
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb has had a fine, not great, start to the season, but he also has lost usage and playing time due to a few blowouts. He’s still sporting a 23% target share and 22% target per route run rate on the year, as he remains the clear focal point of this passing game. If Dallas struggles to run the ball here, it could be a busy day for Lamb against a 49ers defense that is allowing the sixth-most targets per game to opposing players lined up in the slot (8.0). That bodes well for Lamb, who is operating from the slot a healthy 66.3% of the time this season. San Francisco is also allowing the third-most receptions (18.3) and fourth-most targets (25.5) overall to opposing wideouts. He’s a low-end WR1 ahead of this huge NFC battle.
Tight End
Despite ranking 30th among tight ends in routes run, Jake Ferguson has been a top-10 tight end in fantasy. When he’s on the field, he sees targets, as Ferguson is sporting a strong 18.5% target share. He also sees high-value targets, as his six targets from inside the 10-yard line are tied for the league-lead through four weeks. This is a brutal matchup but given his touchdown upside and strong volume, I’d still be fine starting Ferguson as a low-end TE1.
Quarterback
Regardless of matchup, Brock Purdy is seemingly always going to be a high-end QB2. Since making his debut last year, Purdy has scored at least 17 fantasy points in all but two games. And so far this season, Purdy ranks fourth among all quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback (0.61), averaging just under 19 fantasy points per game. This isn’t the easiest of matchups, but Purdy continues to give us such a high weekly floor, regardless of matchup. He remains a high-end QB2.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey has now scored a touchdown in 13 consecutive games, remaining the best player in all of fantasy football. And right now, he is putting together one of the most dominant running back seasons we have ever seen. He has seen either a carry or a target on 42.9% of his snaps this year, the highest rate in the league, while averaging a gaudy 24.5 touches per game. You should probably start him.
Wide Receiver
Deebo Samuel was “active” last week and although he was on the field for 87% of the snaps, he was clearly a decoy. Samuel didn’t see a single target and apparently still isn’t 100% healthy, which makes him a pretty risky start if he is active on Sunday night. It feels unlikely that he will be a decoy for two consecutive weeks but Samuel may not be at full strength for this game. Hopefully he can get in a full practice session to end the week to give us a little more confidence. Regardless, Brandon Aiyuk sets up pretty well here. With Samuel not part of the game plan last week, Aiyuk led the way, catching all six of his targets for 148 yards. The Cowboys pass defense isn’t quite the same without Trevon Diggs and this is an exploitable matchup for Aiyuk. Dallas is playing man defense 48% of the time, the highest rate in the league. Aiyuk welcomes that, as he is sporting a 29.6% target share against man coverage so far this season, while averaging 11.5 yards per target and 3.41 yards per route run. He is a high-end WR2 this week, especially given the health of Samuel.
Tight End
George Kittle caught just one pass for nine yards last week, as he continues to have either a high ceiling game or incredibly low floor game. Kittle is sporting an 18% target share this season but continues to be the fourth option in this offense when everyone is fully healthy. If Samuel is limited, it could benefit Kittle, though that wasn’t the case last week.
