NFL Splits Tool: How Did the WRs Who Changed Teams Last Year Fare?

With most of the significant offseason movements in the rear-view mirror, it’s time to look forward to the upcoming league year and start preparing for our 2023 fantasy football drafts. In this series, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams and players in the past. The splits tool allows you to experiment with a wide variety of inputs such as active/inactive players, spreads, locations and much more to help you gain a better understanding of the cause and effect of different scenarios. Sign up for an FTN Fantasy subscription for full access to the tool which will continue to update throughout the season. 

In years past, there was a common sentiment that wide receivers changing teams often need time to adjust to their new environment and aren’t always the best bets in fantasy. That line of thinking started to change in 2020, when Stefon Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins finished as top five options at the position, the same season they were traded. Diggs set a career-high in receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,535), while Hopkins matched his career best in catches (115) and eclipsed 1,400 receiving yards (1,407) for the third time in eight seasons. After the 2021 pandemic year, a handful of teams found themselves strapped by the salary cap, forcing them to move off superstar caliber players. This was most apparent in the receiver market, with five of the 15 highest-paid players signing with a new team in 2022. In this article, I’m going to use the FTN Splits Tool to see how these receivers fared in their most recent season, compared to their career average. 

Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders 

Davante Adams proved to the world that he was not a product of Aaron Rodgers in his first year in Las Vegas, setting a career-high in targets (180), catching 100 passes for 1,516 yards, and a league-best 14 touchdowns. Most of his production came playing alongside his former college quarterback Derek Carr, but he also he averaged six receptions for 113 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games with Jarrett Stidham. On a per-game basis, Adams increased his production across the board in Las Vegas, aside from a slight downtick in receptions (-0.05).

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins 

Tyreek Hill posted his first 1,000-yard season with Alex Smith at the helm, where he caught 75 passes for 1,183 yards and seven touchdowns in 2017. Since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter, Hill logged 85-plus receptions and 1,200-plus receiving yards in three out of four seasons. Despite getting away from the Andy Reid system and arguably the best quarterback in the league, Hill had his best season to date in 2022. In his first season in Miami, Hill saw a career-high 170 targets, while setting a personal best in receptions (119) and receiving yards (1,710). He took a slight hit in the touchdown department, finding the end zone once for every 244-plus yards. 

A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles 

After an injury-riddled 2021 season, A.J. Brown bounced back in a significant way in Philly, posting career highs in targets (145), receptions (88) and receiving yards (1,496). He also finished second in receiving touchdowns among wide receivers, matching his career best with 11. Brown was well worth the cost of acquisition, helping Jalen Hurts develop as a passer, and making the Eagles legitimate Super Bowl contenders. In only one season with the team, Brown already holds the franchise record for the most receiving yards in a season and is tied for second all-time in receptions.

Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns 

Amari Cooper was arguably the steal of last offseason, shipped to Cleveland from Dallas in exchange for a fifth- and sixth-round swap. Despite playing in 14 out of 17 games with journeyman quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, Cooper logged career-highs in receiving yards (1,160) and touchdowns (9). Although his 4.59 receptions per game were a touch lower than his career average (-0.21), he had 132 targets which was tied for the most he’s seen in a single season. Cooper‘s numbers dipped with Deshaun Watson under center but should improve in 2023 with a full offseason to develop better chemistry. The Browns have been adamant about being less reliant on the run and opening up the offense through an aerial attack.

Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars 

Christian Kirk’s four-year, $72 million contract was mocked and ridiculed last offseason but ended up boding well for a Jaguars team that won the AFC South title for the first time since 2017. With Kirk leading all wide receivers (8-78-1), Jacksonville erased  a 27-point deficit in their first playoff game, mounting the third-largest comeback in NFL postseason history. On the year, Kirk posted his first 1,000-yard season (1,108 yards), while also setting a career-high in targets (133), receptions (84), and touchdowns (8). He was the go-to option for Trevor Lawrence, who took a significant leap in his second season with a reliable group of pass catchers.