Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
We’re not going to know the stakes of the Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers game until the afternoon Seattle Seahawks game concludes. If Seattle beats the Rams, the Lions will be eliminated. For the Packers, the equation is simple. If they win this game, they make it into the playoffs. If not, they are out. Even if the Lions can’t advance themselves (the likeliest scenario), coach Dan Campbell is not going to have his guys lie down. They’d be very happy to knock a division rival out of the playoffs no matter what, so we should get a good game this evening.
Be sure to check out David Jones’ “General Rules” article for Showdown Strategy and his piece for each game, along with the DFS Showdown Strategy articles for each slate. Additionally, the FTN Live Stream every game night will provide the latest insight for each slate.
NFL DFS Sunday Night Breakdown: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Packers -5, O/U 49 (Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)
Detroit Lions Plays for Week 18 DFS – SNF Showdown Slate
Notable Injuries – CB Jeff Okudah, OL Frank Ragnow (Q)
Quarterback
It’s been a strong season for Jared Goff, and the Lions at least have somewhat of an answer for the time being at the most important position on the field. Heading into the finale, Goff is sixth in yards, sixth in attempts, fourth in touchdowns, 15th in points per dropback and 14th in points per game. If you had told them that at the beginning of the year, the team would have been pretty satisfied with that outcome, although he does have one more chance to overcome his home/road splits. Goff has only scored 13.3 points per game when the Lions are on the road, and going into Lambeau at this time of year isn’t easy. Just ask the Vikings. Green Bay is in the top 12 in points per game and DVOA against the pass, making the path a little tougher for Goff.
Even though the Packers have some good metrics against the pass, they’re also 26th in yards allowed when defending the deep ball despite the fact they have faced the second-fewest attempts. That’s a serious disconnect, and Goff has thrown a deep pass 9.4% of the time for a 102.7 passer rating. They could also get hit hard in the play-action game since they are 25th in passer rating allowed, while Goff has made teams pay in that play type. He’s used play-action 28% of the time and has a 123.5 passer rating. Since Goff is eighth in yards per attempt, he could be set up well to take advantage of the weaknesses the Packers have displayed.
Running Back
You can give up on D’Andre Swift playing a ton of snaps at this point of the season, but he had another 15 touches last week and that’s what we care about. He racked up 117 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns last week, and the matchup is spectacular. The Packers are allowing the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-highest gash rate and the seventh-most rushing yards per game. Swift isn’t going to touch the ball 25 times, but his calling card is the fact he’s fifth in yards per touch, second in yards created per touch and fifth in breakaway run rate. When the ball is in his hands, big plays tend to follow, and I am likely playing a ton of him in this one.
The matchup is also a reason to consider Jamaal Williams, because what Swift lacks in touches, Williams makes up for that with touchdowns. He’s second in red-zone touches, eighth in carries, 10th in rushing yards and second in total touchdowns. As long as the scoreboard stays within reach, Williams is going to get plenty of work. The Lions arguably lean on him more than they should since he’s 51st in yards per touch and 54th in yards created per touch, but that’s the way the Lions handle their business. If you believe Detroit keeps this close and/or wins outright, you could play these two together given the matchup, but I would prefer the ceiling of Swift, and he has a much higher floor as well.
Wide Receiver
It’s now been a month since Amon-Ra St. Brown has had a signature game, even though the targets haven’t been the issue. He’s racked up a 26.2% target share and 26.2% for the air yards share but has just 282 yards on that workload with no touchdowns. That might be the most frustrating part because he leads the team in red-zone targets in the past four games with eight. At some point, some of those have to convert, and he is still fifth in receptions, 11th in yards, ninth in points per game, seventh in yards run per route and sixth in targets. He carries the highest-graded matchup in the WR/CB Matchup Tool for the game, although you could argue that the highest salary on the slate is tougher to pay. With 57% of the snaps coming in the slot, his main matchup is Darnell Savage, who has given up just 0.15 points per route but a 67% catch rate.
The tougher matchup in this corps (and another reason to consider St. Brown) goes to DJ Chark since he will have to face Jaire Alexander on the boundary. He’s only allowing a 59% catch rate and 0.24 points per route while Chark is at a 14% target share in his healthy games played. He is also second in the league in aDOT at 16.0 yards which have led to plenty of volatile outcomes for him. I’m torn on him because the individual matchup is very tough, but the Packers have been burnt plenty by the deep ball, so it only takes one big play for Chark.
Josh Reynolds has been the third receiver by the snap count (55.1%), but Kalif Raymond has a 12-11 target lead over the past four weeks, so I would still lean toward Reynolds because Raymond is under 26% for his snaps. If neither player is demanding that many targets, I’m playing the one who’s on the field. He’d face more of Rasul Douglas and his 69% catch rate, and I would think there will be some Jameson Williams questions. He’s still under 18% of the snaps and has caught just one of his eight targets, so the floor is a zero. He would be a player I’d rather not touch if the Lions are eliminated.
Tight End
We’ve seen the tight ends for Detroit scoring some touchdowns lately, but it’s hard to get too excited for them. Since the trade deadline, Brock Wright has the most targets through nine games with 17. I’m not a math wizard, but that equates to under two per game and four of those targets came last week. James Mitchell and Shane Zylstra have nine and 14 targets each, but the temptation to play them comes from Wright and Zylstra having four touchdowns each. It practically defies mathematics for 32 total receptions from three players to produce nine touchdowns, and the Packers are ninth in points per game at the position. I’ll be fading these players and hoping the touchdowns funnel to the more household names, although it’s showdown, so I guess we should brace for three scores from Wright.
Defense/Special Teams
I can’t get there on the road with a defense that is 28th in total DVOA and allows the third-most points per game. Granted, the Green Bay offense is only 14th in points scored per game and has 20 giveaways on the year, but the Lions only have 20 takeaways. They are very cheap but aren’t facing the Chicago offense this week and likely won’t replicate the seven sacks and two takeaways.
Kicker
Michael Badgley has been with the Lions for just 11 games but has 21 attempts, and 11 of his 22 made field goals have come from over 40 yards away, though the range could be a little shorter on the road. Green Bay is 18th in yards allowed and 15th in red-zone conversion rate, but I could see the Lions being crazy aggressive in this game. They’re going to be playing with house money if they’re eliminated, so they might get nuts on fourth down multiple times.
Green Bay Packers for Week 18 SNF DFS – SNF Showdown Slate
Quarterback
It hasn’t been often that Aaron Rodgers has entered a game trailing in the statistics as he does in this one. The offenses are different, and Rodgers is only 10th in attempts, but he’s also 12th in yards, seventh in touchdowns, 22nd in points per game and 21st in points per dropback. His matchup is way better by the same statistics since the Lions are 32nd in points per game allowed (by 2.5 points at that) and 25th in DVOA against the pass this year, although Rodgers hasn’t seen many ceiling outcomes.
He’s scored more than 20 DK points just once this season, and that included the first game against Detroit when he scored just 16.6 DK points. The good news from that game is the Lions yielded the highest yardage for Rodgers this year at 291, and the Packers were a little unlucky in the touchdown department in that game. Rodgers has also been solid against the blitz with an 88.4 passer rating and 60.7% completion rate, while the Lions blitz at the second-highest rate in football. They also have been shredded on the deep ball, as they sit 31st in yards allowed while Rodgers has a 95.3 passer rating. This is a case where Rodgers should be able to do mostly whatever he wants, but he just hasn’t been the fantasy asset we all had hoped for this year.
Running Back
The Detroit run defense is a puzzle, because by the metrics they look awful. They are 31st in yards per attempt, 27th in gash rate allowed, 22nd in rushing yards per game allowed and 27th in DVOA against the run. However, we’ve seen the run defense play well for extended periods this season, so they do have the ability to surprise. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have been working more as a tandem in the past few weeks, and since Week 13 Dillon has hit double-digits in carries in each game. That’s the longest stretch since Weeks 1-4 of hitting that threshold, and the production has mostly followed.
In those four games, Dillon has a 52-46 lead in carries, and it extends to 14-10 in the red zone, along with 5-1 inside the five. Now, make no mistake. Jones is the more talented back and is still in the top 10 in rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions and yards created per touch while earning 38 red-zone touches. Dillon is still 10 behind him, but that makes the past month even more compelling. Once you consider that Dillon is nearly $4,000 cheaper, I’m more likely to play a lot more of him and hope that Jones doesn’t have one of his explosion games.
Wide Receiver
The hip injury that plagued Christian Watson last week is gone, and he’s not listed on the injury report, so we should expect a full allotment of snaps this week. Even at just 60.3% last week, he was still one target off the lead for the offense. Since Week 10, Rodgers has just been feeding Watson the ball with a 22.3% target share, a 38.4% air yards share, 33.3% share of the red-zone targets and the team lead in end-zone targets with seven. He moves all over the alignment, but that means that 66% of his snaps will come against corners that are not named Jeff Okudah. Instead, Jerry Jacobs and Will Harris in the slot will attempt to contain him. Jacobs has been solid with 0.22 points per route and a 56% catch rate, but Harris is someone to target. The team has allowed the most points per game in the slot, and Harris is a part of that with a 70% catch rate and 0.29 points per route allowed.
That means Allen Lazard is going to see the most of Okudah, who has given up a 62% catch rate and 0.25 points per route. Lazard is only 35th in points per game and 41st in yards run per route but is second in targets since Watson became a force in the offense. They aren’t that far apart in salary, so I feel like I want to take the savings from playing Dillon over Jones in part to spend on Watson.
We also have Romeo Doubs and Randall Cobb splitting snaps almost evenly, and that could drop a little bit this week with Watson back. Doubs has the advantage in target share at 12.7% to 9.4% and held a 4-2 edge last week, so that would be my first choice. Doubs has flashed more ability than the veteran, and they’ll both get their fair share in the slot as well.
Tight End
Detroit is 27th in points per game allowed, but it has mostly been such a quiet season for Robert Tonyan. The target share is 12.5%, but the aDOT is only 5.7 yards and he only has eight red-zone targets, 19th among tight ends. He’s also 23rd in points per game, has scored just twice, is 27th in route participation and is 18th in yards. With the Green Bay offense not being nearly as fearsome as they have been in the past few years, it becomes much more difficult to feed everyone involved, and Tonyan has taken a backseat.
Both Marcedes Lewis and Josiah Deguara are under a 3% target share and have a combined 170 yards and two touchdowns, so they shouldn’t be a part of anything outside of 150-max.
Defense/Special Teams
I don’t really mind taking some shots with the Green Bay defense since they aren’t very expensive and the Lions have only scored 19.3 points per game on the road as compared to 33.1 per game at home. Green Bay is only 18th in total DVOA but also generates the fourth-highest pressure rate and is tied for the fourth-most takeaways, even if they aren’t in the top half of the league in sacks. Detroit has only allowed 23 sacks to this point, the second-fewest, and only have 15 turnovers, so it’s not the best matchup Green Bay will ever see. You just want the road issues to bite the Lions offense as they have all season.
Kicker
Mason Crosby doesn’t have a lot of attempts even though he’s played in every game. He appears to have no distance since only five of his 22 made field goals have come from beyond 40 yards, which isn’t ideal. The Lions are still 32nd in yards per game allowed and 27th in red-zone conversion rate allowed, so there is plenty of room to make some kicks if the Packers let him.
