Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
There are 10 games in the NBA Tuesday, and just like Monday, we’re going to have one team that looks like it’s going to be pretty thin with how many players it’ll have active. The Phoenix Suns are missing four regular players from their rotation, and with nine other games, value players will surely pop up through the day on DFS.
1. Kawhi Leonard could be without key teammates
The Los Angeles Clippers played an overtime game Monday, which was one of the more improbable circumstances in recent NBA history –
They now travel to Toronto to play the Raptors, and I would say there is a very reasonable chance that Paul George and John Wall could sit out. George was at 38 minutes unexpectedly and without those two, Kawhi has scored 1.20 points per minute (albeit in a sample size of around 65 minutes). Since he’s been playing 30-34 minutes Dec. 7, Kawhi has been driving to the basket almost 13 times per game and he’s looked more like himself. The Raptors are only 13th in defensive rating and the salary could be far too low if the cards fall right for Kawhi.
2. Clint Capela has been ruled out for the Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks visit the Indiana Pacers, and this game has a 239-point total, one of four games that have a total of over 235 points. These games will be a lot of my focus, and Onyeka Okongwu walks into one of the most generous spots he could have. Indiana is 29th against rebounders, they have allowed the 19th-most points per game in the paint, and Okongwu has scored 0.96 points per minute without Capela. He recently showed a ceiling outcome without Capela as he scored 44.25 DK points and these teams are sixth and seventh in pace on the season.
3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander drives to the basket 24 times per game
He’s leading the league in that metric and 16.5 of his 31.6 points scored per game have come from driving to the basket. The San Antonio Spurs are the perfect matchup for that since both teams are in the top 10 in pace, the Spurs are 30th in defensive rating, and they are 29th in points per game allowed in the paint. They have a very limited ability to keep Gilgeous-Alexander from getting into the paint or to whatever spot he wants and he’s scoring 1.40 points per minute on the season. Lastly, the Spurs are just 28th against primary ball handlers and he’s 11th in time of possession per game this year.
4. Draymond Green is under $6,000
We should want a piece of the Hornets visiting the Warriors, and Green is very appealing. His points per minute without Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins is only 0.89 but these two teams are in the top 10 in pace and the bottom eight in defensive rating. The Hornets are 28th against dimers and Green leads in assist rate at 30.2%. Green has been playing 32-34 minutes when the game is competitive and the spread is under five points. With Charlotte ranked 29th in rebounds allowed to the opponent, Green has a lot of routes to score fantasy points in this game.
5. Nikola Jokic is scoring 1.68 points per minute
There were games when Jamal Murray and Michael Porter played with Jokic that he was disappointing, but the Nuggets have jumped to the front of the Western Conference and Jokic has gotten back to his MVP form in a hurry. He’s only at a 28.3% usage rate but still has a 40.5% assist rate and he leads the league by a lot with 112.9 touches per game. The next closest player is James Harden at 98.4 and then the Kings are allowing the fifth-highest points per possession against post-ups. Jokic leads the league in scoring in that play type and Jokic is scoring 12.3 points per game in the paint. Sacramento is 28th and their star center Domantas Sabonis is questionable with a thumb injury. If he sits, Jokic doesn’t have a shred of resistance in this game and as of now, he’ll be one of my main targets for this slate.
