Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There is a ton of action on tap Friday for the NBA, with a 13-game main DFS slate, and there is a ton of news to keep track of. Some of the teams are entering with a clean bill of health while others are missing multiple key players and there are high totals to chase.
1. The Knicks are tied for the most points per game allowed against spot-up shooters
While I do like Anfernee Simons a lot in this matchup, Jerami Grant stands out in a major way. Damian Lillard is out for this game and the Blazers get a massive pace-up spot since they are 28th and the Knicks are 10th. Grant has logged the second-most minutes on the court when Lillard is off the floor and he’s scoring 1.00 points per minute and a 24.8% usage rate. Grant is second in the league in spot-up points per game with an effective field goal rate of 63.1%. He’s going to have plenty of opportunity for a reasonable salary.
2. DeMar DeRozan is eighth in points per possession in isolation
Not only is DeRozan efficient in isolation play types, but he’s also ninth in raw points per game despite being in the outside the top 20 in field goal attempts per game. When we look at the Thunder, they look like an elite defense when faced with isolation. However, they have faced it at the third-lowest frequency and are only about league-average in field goal rate allowed and effective field goal rate allowed. This game features a high pace (both teams are ninth or higher) and it’s inside the top five in the NBA Game Environment Tool. Pairing him or another Bull with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Thunder is interesting.
3. Zion Williamson has 1.45 points per minute without CJ McCollum on the floor
The Pelicans have ruled out McCollum for Friday, and the Grizzlies are down at 20th in defensive rating. Additionally, they are giving up 30.1 field goals within five feet of the hoop and allow a 62.7% conversion rate. Those numbers are about average for an NBA team but Zion just needs a small opening near the basket to shoot. He’s now taken 200 attempts this season and a whopping 166 of them have come within five feet of the basket. He’s too cheap regardless but Memphis has listed center Steven Adams as questionable. Even with Jaren Jackson back in the fold for the defense around the rim, Zion is hard to not take a hard look at.
4. Ben Simmons is $7,200 on DraftKings
People will probably balk at that salary, but it does make a ton of sense about why things are starting to turn around for Simmons. His last four games have shown why we’ve wanted to play him for the majority of the season because when he’s playing well, he’s a stat-stuffer and can rack up DK points. In the past four games, he’s averaging 1.27 points per minute and has at least flirted with two triple-doubles. The blocks and steals have started to come back around with 11 total in his past two games and the mental aspect of the game is clicking with his body continuing to get healthier. The Pacers are 17th against low-usage wing players, 18th in defensive rating, and seventh in pace. Every shot attempt this year except for eight have come within nine feet of the basket and the Pacers are also 27th in points per game allowed in the paint. Friday could be the triple-double night.
5. Bones Hyland is out for Denver
It’s always nice to have players in the latest game of the night when it makes sense and the loss of Hyland is important. Michael Porter is up in the air as well and if both are out it will just amplify the rest of the Nuggets. While Bruce Brown will lead the second unit (and is a great play), Gordon is going to be needed for at least 32 minutes tonight and possibly more. He’s at 1.19 points per minute and if you prefer to not spend on Nikola Jokic, slotting Gordon into the forward spot on DK is highly prudent. If Porter is out, Gordon becomes an even better play and if he’s in, just play Brown as the point guard for the second unit.
