Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
We’re heading into Week 10 of the regular season. Over the offseason, I did an “NFL Splits” series, looking at historical trends to help predict the outlook of the 2022 season. I will be continuing the series during the season by using the FTN Splits Tool and looking at actionable takeaways from the previous weeks.
The Splits Tool allows me to experiment with different situations, such as active/inactive players, spreads, locations, and more, to get a better understanding of the rest of the season. Users can sign up for an FTN Fantasy subscription and gain access to all the tools needed to dominate their fantasy leagues.
The Cheetah Becomes a Dolphin
The Dolphins had many moving pieces this offseason, starting with replacing three-year head coach Brian Flores. Although Flores had led the team to back-to-back winning seasons, he couldn’t quite get over the hump, failing to make a single postseason appearance. To fill the vacancy, Miami brought in 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, who came one game shy of making the Super Bowl in 2021.
McDaniel had spent the last five seasons under Kyle Shanahan, who has a rich coaching tree and is arguably one of the sharpest play callers in the league. McDaniel’s main goal for the upcoming season was to help bolster the development of third-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Although Tagovailoa had shown signs of potential, there was still more to be desired. To help aid the process, McDaniel and company traded five future draft picks to Kansas City in exchange for All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Fast forward to the midway point of the 2022 regular season, Hill leads the NFL in receptions (76) and receiving yards (1,104). His 1,104 receiving yards entering Week 10 are the most ever by a player in the first nine games of a season. In this article, I’m going to be using the splits tool to look at how Hill’s presence has impacted Tagovailoa relative to last season, as well as the other Miami pass catchers.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB
After being selected fifth overall in 2019, Tua Tagovailoa hadn’t lived up to expectations, especially considering the quarterbacks he was drafted in between. He belonged in the same draft class as Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, who quickly ascended as two of the best young quarterbacks in the league. In 2021, Tagovailoa appeared in 12 of 17 games, completing 263 passes for 2,653 yards and ten touchdowns. Although the box score doesn’t stand out, he ranked first among all signal callers in deep-ball completion rate, red-zone completion rate, and third in accuracy. The primary concern for Tagovailoa was his limitations as a downfield passer, who finished 31st in deep-ball attempts and air yards last season. The addition of Tyreek Hill has significantly impacted Tagovailoa’s passing production, which has increased across the board. Although his pass attempts per game are similar, he’s averaging 78.78 more passing yards with Hill on the field.
Jaylen Waddle, WR
The Dolphins initially held the third pick in the 2021 draft before trading down to 12 and acquiring multiple future drafts picks in the process. On the draft day, however, Miami made its way back up the board and selected Jaylen Waddle at sixth overall. Waddle had a historic rookie season, eclipsing 1,000 receiving yards (1,015) and setting a new record for most receptions by a first-year player (104). Despite added competition with Tyreek Hill this season, Waddle’s numbers have improved in his second year. With Hill on the field, Waddle sees fewer targets and receptions but is averaging 26.78 yards and finding the endzone at a much higher rate. While operating as the second option in Miami, Waddle has benefited from softer coverage allowing him to display his big play upside.
Mike Gesicki, TE
Mike Gesicki had a career year in 2021, setting a personal best in targets (112), receptions (73), and receiving yards (780). As a result, the Dolphins placed the franchise tag on Gesicki, keeping him in Miami for one more season. Unfortunately, the addition of Tyreek Hill has been a significant blow for Gesicki, whose production has decreased drastically. Gesicki has gotten worse in every category aside from touchdowns. Gesicki has had 40 or more receiving yards twice through nine games but has already scored four touchdowns.
