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The strangest NFL offseason in memory is still reverberating throughout the league. We saw a handful of teams (the Dolphins, Eagles, Raiders) go all in on wide receiver, while we saw others (the Bears, Packers, Ravens) more or less punt on the position, running with the underwhelming units they had in place. One offseason’s worth of evidence is not enough to draw a conclusion, but so far, the teams diving in on receivers have been basically successful in that endeavor (the Raiders are not doing their part here), while the teams that have looked past the position have almost uniformly seemed to regret that decision.
One of the problems with not loading up on receiver is that, if your No. 1 gets hurt, you might struggle to replace him. Or maybe not – in Baltimore, 2021 first-rounder Rashod Bateman was expected to be the team’s No. 1 receiver (though clear No. 2 target behind TE Mark Andrews), but he missed Weeks 5-6 with injury and barely played in Week 8 when he aggravated the problem. That has opened up some opportunity in the team’s passing game, and so far, Devin Duvernay has slid into that role.
Devin Duvernay History
The Ravens selected Duvernay in the third round in 2020. He worked primarily as a returner early in his career (returned 4 punts and 21 kicks in 2020, 26 and 28 and made the Pro Bowl in 2021), only garnering 593 scrimmage yards and 2 scores across the two seasons on offense. This year, he’s been a much bigger part of the offense, sitting second on the team in targets (32, already more than in 2020 and more than two-thirds of the way to his 2021 total) and receiving yards (313). He’s scored a career-high 4 touchdowns on offense already and has added the league’s only return touchdown so far to boot.
For fantasy, Duvernay sits as WR21 in PPR through eight weeks, with a WR9, WR18 and WR26 week on his resume. On Mojo, his value peaked after Week 9 last season when a Marquise Brown injury and a touchdown brought him up to $6.47. All offseason, that value hovered in the $6.20-$6.30 range, but it fell to the mid-$5 range early this season despite his early production. Duvernay’s productive Week 8 in a primetime showcase game (4 receptions for 31 yards, 2 carries for 33 yards and a touchdown, WR18) brought his value to an in-season high of $5.74, in large part because Bateman played only 13 snaps in the game, and Andrews and Gus Edwards left with injuries as well.
Going Forward
To recap, Duvernay has already had the best season of his career, the only receiver in front of him in the offense is hurt (and likely for a while), the offense’s top running back is also hurt, and his “season high” Mojo value is still about 50 cents lower than it was almost all offseason. If you can find some logic in that sentence, congratulations to you.
Devin Duvernay is extremely unlikely to ever be an upper-tier receiver. With Andrews escaping serious injury, and in a Ravens’ offense that runs first and foremost through Lamar Jackson, there’s only so high a receiver can climb. But then upper-tier receivers are almost universally above $10, often far above it. Marquise Brown topped 1,000 yards in this offense a year ago. A receiver can have a big year in Baltimore.
Summary
With Bateman on the shelf for at least the next few games, only two wide receivers in Baltimore are likely to be active in Week 9 and have more than 6 targets on the season, with Duvernay’s 32 and Demarcus Robinson‘s 25. If Andrews is hindered at all, Duvernay and Isaiah Likely will be the team’s top two weapons. Nobody is looking for Devin Duvernay to be a $20 receiver, but it wouldn’t be hard at all if he were to climb to $8, $10, $12. You’ll never go broke making money, and even if Duvernay doesn’t have a sky-high ceiling, the arrows are pointing up.