NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The NBA is not data-driven in the same way sports like baseball and golf are. In particular, we can’t evaluate individual matchups solely through calculations. However, we can still use both team level and individual statistics to guide our lineup-building process on a daily basis. Here are five stats I want to build around in DFS Wednesday.
1. 104.7
This isn’t exactly a statistic — it’s a projection. Using team-level data from last season, tweaked for this season’s expectations, I have Atlanta and Houston projected for a 104.7 pace factor Wednesday. Importantly, this does not factor in the pace boost we see from every team out of the gate. For example, the Lakers and Warriors were projected for just under 102 last night (a fast projection) and actually played at an enormous 113.5 pace factor.
This Atlanta/Houston matchup also features two teams who struggle to defend, so we should expect fireworks here. You can find all other pace projections in the NBA Game Environments Model.
2. 0.03
Thanks to the FTN Splits Tool, we can see that Terry Rozier only averaged 0.03 DK points more per minute with LaMelo Ball off the floor than with him on the floor. This is a surprisingly low differential, and it’s further supported by the fact that Rozier actually averaged fewer points per game in the three games he played without Ball active last season.
The price and matchup are great for Rozier, but if his projected rostership gets high enough, I’ll happily fade him with the knowledge Ball’s absence isn’t the boost for Rozier that we might expect it to be. It’s also worth noting that in seven games Gordon Hayward played without Ball active, he averaged 8.8 DK points above his standard.
3. 1.3
Domantas Sabonis averaged a strong 1.3 fantasy points per minute while sharing the floor with De’Aaron Fox last season. They open their season Wednesday against a Portland team that poses little threat defensively. In fact, their Vegas implied team total is five points above their average points per game from a season ago.
4. 6.8
The Brooklyn Nets allowed 6.8 putback attempts per game last season, second worst in the league. Jonas Valanciunas was fourth in the NBA a season ago in put-back points per game. This is a dream matchup for J-Val if they leave him on the floor. The only concern I have here is the effect Zion Williamson will have on Valanciunas’ scoring, minutes and rebound share.
5. 1.24
Kevin Porter averaged 1.04 FPPM last season, but in 13 games without Christian Wood, that number ballooned to 1.24. There’s a good chance my SE will have at least four players from this game, but KPJ is the one I’m locking in.
