Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. In fact, there are so many stats that, in virtually every matchup, you can find a stat to favor each side. Rather, we want to find stats that are fully supported by the collection of stats, painting one clear picture.
These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Friday’s DFS slate.
1. 3.29
Kevin Gausman’s 3.29 baseline SIERA is third on the slate behind only Shane McClanahan and Aaron Nola. His 27.8% K rate is fourth on the slate. The $8200 price tag is solely due to the matchup with the Yankees, but they’re nothing to fear right now.
Over the last 14 days, the Yankees have a wRC+ of 77.7 and it’s even lower in the last week, at 63.5. Meanwhile, their K rate in the past two weeks is up to 25.4%, in line with their 24.5% K rate vs. righties in the last 30 days.
Gausman is fourth in the Strikeout Model in projected K’s, leading to a strong median projection and even better threshold probabilities for his price.
2. 30.6%
Does it surprise you to know that the pitcher with the highest K rate on Friday’s slate is neither McClanahan nor Nola? It’s Blake Snell, at 30.6%. Washington has a reputation of not striking out much, but since trading Juan Soto and Josh Bell, it’s been a slightly different story. For one thing, they’ve struck out vs. lefties at a 27.1% clip over the last 30 days and their overall K rate in the last 14 days is 23.0%.
Snell deserves to be mega chalk Friday.
3. 13.4%
Over the last 30 days, no pitcher has allowed a higher barrel rate than Lance Lynn, at 13.4%. This spells trouble for a guy who relies on strikeouts but has to face a Cleveland Guardians team with the lowest K rate in the league. In fact, the Guardians have struck out just 15.9% of the time in the last 14 days, an astonishingly low number.
Lynn’s average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed are also up, so don’t be surprised if Cleveland makes his night miserable.
4. 47.4%
You know I love to stack against good pitchers in bad form, so Kyle Wright’s 47.4% HH rate over the last 30 days certainly qualifies. He’s also getting barreled at an 11.8% clip in that time, so these Houston hitters should be salivating about the matchup.
Wright’s primary pitch is his curveball, which he pairs with a fastball-sinker combo and a changeup — I would venture a guess that no team matches up better with him from a pitch mix perspective than Houston.
5. .360
The Atlanta Braves are heating up… again. They have a .360 wOBA in the last week, along with a .208 ISO and 129.2 wRC+. I expect this to be an especially difficult matchup for Lance McCullers Jr. and his 10.9% walk rate. Simply put, you can’t give the Braves free passes or they’ll make you pay. They’ll also punish you for falling behind in the count too often.
There’s something in the pitch mix data that tells me Atlanta could shell him, so tune into Friday’s livestream to hear more about it.
6. 23.6%
This isn’t Detroit’s K rate over the last 14 days. It’s their K:BB differential. They’re striking out 28.7% of the time and walking just 5.1%. They’ve been better vs. lefties this season, but does it matter? I doubt it.
Patrick Sandoval’s greatest risk lies in his poor CSW trend, which is down three percentage points over the last 30 days. His high walk rate should be hidden by Detroit’s low walk rate, but he’ll still need his command to rack up the Ks.
7. 5.69
Tommy Henry’s 5.69 SIERA isn’t a surprise considering the fact that his xFIP was over 5.0 in over 100 AAA innings this season. It’s unclear why Arizona believes he’s ready for the majors, and now he has to face a Cardinals team with a 159 wRC+ and .395 wOBA vs. left-handed pitching in the last 30 days. Good luck to us having to choose between Austin Riley, José Ramírez and Nolan Arenado at 3B.
