Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Rookies get all the attention. They’re the flashy new piece that could be anything. And then a class of rookies comes through and they’re old news, replaced by the next flashy, new thing. But last year’s rookies aren’t gone, and in many cases, they’re going to be even better than the exciting new pieces that are just showing up.
Of course, sometimes they won’t be, and that matters too. So as we head toward training camp, preseason, and then the start of the 2022 NFL season, we’re taking a look at last year’s rookie class. What did we think about last year’s rookie class? What worked? What didn’t? And what’s the prognosis for them going forward?
Terrace Marshall, WR, Carolina Panthers
Terrace Marshall was elected with the 59th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. As a result, he was penciled in initially as the team’s third wide receiver behind DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson in a shallow depth chart. That made sense after a productive three years at LSU (1,594 yards and 23 touchdowns). Additionally, he possessed a ton of great physical traits. First of all, he had a great size-to-speed combination, standing 6-foot-4 and running a 4.4-second 40. This helped him excel in go routes and allowed him to run away from coverages on inside routes. Additionally, he had a wide catch radius and was a tough tackle once he had the ball in his hand. On the flip side, Marshall had a lack of intensity and focus in his 2020 tape and also allowed coverage to jam him often, which he could not fight off at the release point.
Marshall drew plenty of attention when it came to fantasy football, in large part due to his physical traits and speed. Additionally, his touchdown upside was seen as immense as he was joining a wide receiver group that had struggled to find the end zone. As a result, dynasty managers were drafting him as the WR7 at 17th overall in rookie drafts. With an immediate opportunity to produce redraft players were also excited for Marshall in 2021. Ultimately, resulting in his ADP settling at WR59 and the 154 overall player.
What Went Right
Unfortunately, when it came to 2021, Marshall was just about a total bust. In the first three weeks of the season, he saw 14 targets and caught 11 for 91 yards. After that, he disappeared. Per the FTN Fantasy advanced receiving stats, we can see that he saw 23 first-read targets, fifth most on the team. Those accounted for a majority of the 30 targets he saw all season, giving a glimmer of hope that he could become a significant part of this offense at one point. We also saw he only dropped one target last season, which was nice to see — that was a problem in college.
What Went Wrong
Marshall struggled to transition from college to the NFL in year one and only played in 13 games, missing two (Weeks 7-8) to a concussion in Weeks 7-8 and sitting as a healthy scratch in Week 12. He landed on IR with a foot injury in Week 18. Even outside these missed weeks, he was irrelevant, seeing only 30 targets all season, with most of them came in the first three weeks. As a result, over his final nine games, he only caught seven passes and produced 47 yards. For the season, he put up only 4.6 yards per reception, worst on the team among relevant players. If that was not frustrating enough, he only saw one end zone target all season and did not convert on it. Additionally, he averaged a poor 40.7 passer rating when targeted, which ranked 10th out of 15 qualifying players on the Panthers. He also struggled in contested situations, as he did not convert on any of his six contested targets.
Prognosis Entering 2022
It is hard to find the silver lining for Marshall this season, especially after being a healthy scratch last season. However, there is still hope — the Panthers brought in Baker Mayfield this offseason who is an upgrade from Sam Darnold. That means this offense should be more productive, especially with Christian McCaffery returning from injury as well. This all bodes well for Marshall — if the offense improves, there is still a chance he can carve out a big slot role or third wide receiver role that allows him to become a fantasy relevant this season. On the flip side, this is a very risky bet, as it’s just as likely he has no role whatsoever again this year. At a current ADP of 256 overall, it is a pretty cheap risk, so it may just be worth a shot late in your drafts this year as the upside could be huge.
As a dynasty player, we should be sending out feeler offers to all of the teams who roster him. There is no question that he is a physically talent player, but more of a question of whether he can prove it in year two. If so, there could be a huge profit to gain if you acquire him now at what may be the lowest price he’ll ever carry. Marshall very easily could become the secondary target to DJ Moore if things break right, carving out a huge red zone presence. Maybe that’s not the most likely outcome, but it’s on the table, and if things break right, he could bounce back from his bust rookie season.
