NBA DFS Preview – First Look (1/9)

There are plenty of sports to watch on Sunday. 

We have a full slate of NFL games, some afternoon basketball, and then the main NBA slate later on, which will be our focus here. Again, be sure to check out the amazing FTN NBA Optimizer throughout the day. 

Washington Wizards @ Orlando Magic

WAS -6.5, total: 220.5

Pace: WAS (23rd), ORL (20th)

Situations to monitor:

• Wendell Carter (hamstring) didn’t play on Saturday and is questionable for Sunday’s game.
• For Washington, Montrezl Harrell and Rui Hachimura are listed as questionable.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Toronto Raptors

TOR -8.5, total: 222

Pace: NOP (19th), TOR (22nd)

Situations to monitor:

• Josh Hart is not with the Pelicans and will not play in this game.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets

MIN -6.5, total: 230

Pace: MIN (5th), HOU (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

• Patrick Beverley (groin) is questionable for Minnesota.

Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

DEN -7, total: 214.5

Pace: DEN (24th), OKC (11th)

Situations to monitor:

• Derrick Favors has missed the last two games with a back injury and is once again listed as questionable for the Thunder.

Chicago Bulls @ Dallas Mavericks

CHI -3.5, total: 217

Pace: CHI (9th), DAL (27th)

Situations to monitor:

• Luka Doncic is dealing with an ankle injury and is questionable to play. Kristaps Porzingis remains in the health and safety protocols, while Willie Cauley-Stein is still away from the team.
• Alex Caruso has been placed in the league’s health and safety protocols.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors

GSW -9.5, total: 218.5

Pace: CLE (21st), GSW (8th)

Situations to monitor:

• Klay Thompson will make his return on Sunday and will likely be on a minutes limit.

Sacramento Kings @ Portland Trail Blazers

SAC -1.5, total: 225.5

Pace: SAC (4th), POR (15th)

Situations to monitor:

• Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, and Larry Nance remain out for Portland.
• Richaun Holmes is in the health and safety protocols, while De’Aaron Fox (shoulder) is listed as questionable.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers

LAL -2.5, total: 225

Pace: MEM (12th), LAL (1st)

Situations to monitor:

• Ja Morant missed Saturday’s game with a thigh injury and is questionable for Sunday’s contest. Meanwhile, Dillon Brooks (ankle) is doubtful to play, while Steven Adams is in the health and safety protocols.

Stats to Know

Anthony Edwards is averaging 5.8 transition points per game so far this season.

Only Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James are averaging more points per game off the transition this year. Edwards has also been very efficient in transition, averaging a healthy 1.30 points per possession and sporting an insane 71.5% effective field goal percentage off the play type. This is a prime matchup for Edwards, as he’ll face a fast-paced Houston team that struggles to defend. On the year, the Rockets are allowing a league-leading 23.2 transition points per game, as well as a league-leading 18.1% frequency rate. In one meeting against the Rockets this season, Edwards went for 29 points, six rebounds, three assists, and a steal.

Tyrese Haliburton is sporting a 24% assist rate with De’Aaron Fox off the floor this season.

Fox is questionable to play against Los Angeles on Sunday with a shoulder injury. If he sits, Haliburton becomes an outstanding mid-range play on this slate. With Fox off the floor this season, Haliburton is sporting a healthy 24% assist rate to go along with a decent 19.4% usage rate. He is also averaging just over a fantasy point per minute in the split. We’ve seen Haliburton have some huge games with Fox out of the lineup and in a five-game stretch where Fox was out, Haliburton averaged a gaudy 105.2 touches and 9.1 minutes of possession per game. 

Jusuf Nurkic is averaging 8.7 post-ups per game over his last three outings

With Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum sidelined, Portland has played through Nurkic a lot more as of late, especially in the post. For the entire season, he is averaging just 3.2 post-ups per game but over his last three contests, Nurkic is averaging nearly nine post-ups per game, while his minutes have been closer to the 35 range, which is huge for a player with his efficiency on a per-minute basis. The floor has been pretty high due to his rebounding and passing at the center position, but more usage and shot attempts give him a serious ceiling. 

Value Plays

Brandon Clarke vs LAL 

Memphis has been without Kyle Anderson in the frontcourt and now Dillon Brooks is doubtful, Ja Morant is questionable and Steven Adams is in the health and safety protocols. With Anderson and Adams off the floor this season, Clarke is sporting a 28% rebounding rate while averaging 1.15 fantasy points per minute. He hauled in a career-high 15 boards with Adams out during Memphis’ last game.

Garrett Temple vs TOR

Josh Hart, who plays 35-38 minutes in close games, is not with the team. Temple should see more minutes and is a very strong candidate to start for the Pelicans against the Raptors. 

Last Night’s GPP Performances

DraftKings optimal lineup

• Tyler Herro (51.25)
• Duncan Robinson (37.5)
• Gary Harris (41.5)
• Trey Lyles (42.25)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (70)
• Lance Stephenson (54)
• Khris Middleton (53.5)
• P.J. Tucker (31.25)

FanDuel optimal lineup

• Terry Rozier (42.8)
• Donovan Mitchell (52.9)
• Duncan Robinson (33.3)
• Tyler Herro (51.5)
• Gary Harris (37.2)
• Lance Stephenson (55.2)
• Trey Lyles (41.6)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (67.9)
• Bobby Portis (38.1)

With Milwaukee missing Jrue Holiday, it isn’t surprising to see Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton both land in an optimal lineup and have huge games, as the usage just flows through both players. We also saw Lance Stephenson have a huge game for the short-handed Pacers.