NBA DFS Preview – First Look (12/8)

13 NBA games, one DFS slate? Buckle up.

There is so much to break down for Wednesday’s massive NBA slate and when there are slates this large, it can be a bit overwhelming. The best way to combat that is to check out the content and videos here at FTN, as well as the NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for December 8 | NBA DFS First Look

Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Hornets

PHI -6, total: 215
Pace: PHI (29th), CHA (3rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Charlotte remains depleted, as LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Ish Smith, Jalen McDaniels and Mason Plumlee are still in the COVID-19 protocols.
• For Philadelphia, Tyrese Maxey is questionable with a non-COVID-19 illness. He missed the team’s last game, which moved Shake Milton into the starting lineup.

Chicago Bulls @ Cleveland Cavaliers

CLE -2.5, total: 209.5
Pace: CHI (14th), CLE (22nd)

Situations to monitor:

• DeMar DeRozan was placed in the league’s health and safety protocols on Monday and will remain out for this game. The Bulls will also be without Alex Caruso and Coby White.

Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons

WAS -5.5, total: 209
Pace: WAS (26th), DET (16th)

Situations to monitor:

• Spencer Dinwiddie rested Monday but should be back in the lineup Wednesday.

New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers

IND -4, total: 212.5
Pace: NYK (22nd), IND (19th)

Situations to monitor:

• TJ McConnell and Justin Holiday will remain sidelined for the Pacers.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat

MIL -6, total: 217
Pace: MIL (8th), MIA (28th)

Situations to monitor:

• After aggravating his tailbone injury, Jimmy Butler has been ruled out again. Caleb Martin is also questionable for Miami.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Toronto Raptors

TOR -7, total: 209
Pace: OKC (14th), TOR (27th)

Situations to monitor:

• OG Anunoby and Khem Birch will remain sidelined for Toronto.

Brooklyn Nets @ Houston Rockets

BKN -6.5, total: 225
Pace: BKN (11th), HOU (1st)

Situations to monitor:

• The Rockets will continue to be without both Kevin Porter and Jalen Green in their backcourt for this game.

Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies

MEM -4, total: 213.5
Pace: DAL (25th), MEM (11th)

Situations to monitor:

• Kyle Anderson has missed the last three games with a back injury and is listed as doubtful for Wednesday’s contest.

Utah Jazz @ Minnesota Timberwolves

UTA -7.5, total: 221.5
Pace: UTA (18th), MIN (9th)

Situations to monitor:

• Karl-Anthony Towns returned to the lineup Monday (tailbone) but is once again listed as questionable. Meanwhile, D’Angelo Russell, who missed Monday’s game with an ankle injury, is unlikely to play.
• Minnesota does expect Patrick Beverley to return to the lineup, however.

Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans

DEN -1.5, total: 215
Pace: DEN (29th), NOP (20th)

Situations to monitor:

• Josh Hart (knee) is listed as questionable for the Pelicans.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors

GSW -14, total: 217
Pace: POR (17th), GSW (7th)

Situations to monitor:

• Already without Damian Lillard, now Portland will be without CJ McCollum, who will miss time with a collapsed lung. Anfernee Simons is questionable to return to the lineup with an ankle injury.

Orlando Magic @ Sacramento Kings

SAC -7, total: 220
Pace: ORL (9th), SAC (4th)

Situations to monitor:

• None.

Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Clippers

LAC -4, total: 213
Pace: BOS (24th), LAC (13th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jaylen Brown was out of the lineup again Tuesday and is questionable for Wednesday’s game. The Celtics don’t want him to play until he is 100% healthy.
• For the Clippers, Nicolas Batum (conditioning) is questionable

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Joel Embiid scored 20 points from the post in Philadelphia’s last game against Charlotte

Why is this notable? Well, because the 76ers face the Hornets again Wednesday. It was great to see a short-handed Charlotte team keep that game close, even sending it into overtime, allowing Embiid to post a huge stat line (43-15-7). 20 of his 43 points came in the post, which is an area you can certainly attack this Charlotte frontcourt. They are allowing a league-high 6.4 post-up points per game on the year to go along with the second-most points per possession (1.11) and second-highest field goal percentage (56.3%). Embiid, meanwhile, leads the NBA in both post-up points (6.8) and possessions (10.9) per game on the year.

Nikola Vucevic posted a 32.1% usage rate in Chicago’s last game

The Bulls were without DeMar DeRozan, who remains in the league’s health and safety protocols. In their last game, Vucevic led the team with a usage rate north of 32%, while touching the ball 84 times, up from his season average of 72 per contest. On the season, Vucevic is sporting a 26% usage, while averaging 1.30 fantasy points per minute with DeRozan off the floor.

Luguentz Dort is averaging 6.1 spot-up points per game this season

That is good for the seventh-highest number in the NBA, as Dort is also shooting a career-best 43% from the field so far this season. He is coming off a fantastic game, scoring 28 real points and I like his potential again on Wednesday against a Toronto defense that is coughing up a healthy 31.8 points per game to spot-up shooters this season, good for the second-most in the league. Meanwhile, Dort’s 5.9 field goal attempts per game off spot-ups are the most in all of basketball. He is a very strong mid-range play on this slate. 

The Jazz are allowing the most points per game off hand-offs this season (7.6)

Utah is allowing the most points per game off the play type on the year, which could bode well for Anthony Edwards, who is averaging 2.1 points per game off hand-offs, good for the fourth-most in the NBA. He is averaging 1.04 points per possession off the play type, while shooting a solid 45% from the field. Edwards will also see a bump in usage with D’Angelo Russell likely out. With Russell off the floor this season, Edwards is sporting a whopping 32.9% usage rate, while averaging 1.26 fantasy points per minute in the split.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Derrick White (44.0)
Talen Horton-Tucker (30.0)
RJ Barrett (47.75)
James Johnson (28.0)
Mitchell Robinson (39.5)
James Harden (54.75)
Jayson Tatum (52.5)
Jakob Poeltl (36.5)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Derrick White (40.7)
James Harden (49.8)
Alec Burks (29.3)
Talen Horton-Tucker (31.2)
Dorian Finney-Smith (33.2)
RJ Barrett (45.0)
James Johnson (28.8)
Jayson Tatum (49.1)
Mitchell Robinson (41.8)

Jayson Tatum continued to do a ton of the heavy lifting for the Celtics, who remain without Jalen Brown. Meanwhile, RJ Barrett put together one of his rare upside games, scoring 32 points on an insane 11-of-20 from the field and 7-of-8 from beyond the arc. With just three games Tuesday, it was obviously a fairly concentrated slate.