Should You Draft Jayden Daniels or Jalen Hurts in 2025?

If you’re new to this weekly series, then welcome! You can find further explanation of what this is and links to all prior editions, but this is basically what happens:

We examine two players, both at the same position and with comparable price tags according to current ADP. From there, we stack up the cases for and against each before picking a “winner” of who’s the better pick for the 2025 season. Got it? Pretty straightforward.

For this one, we’re digging into Jalen Hurts from the Philadelphia Eagles (ADP QB4 in our Fantasy Football ADP tool) and Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders (QB3).

(All stats per NFL StatsHub unless otherwise noted)

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

The Case for Hurts

This one’s an easy case to build. Hurts has pretty much been an elite fantasy asset since becoming a starter in 2021.

The defending Super Bowl champion started out by finishing as the QB6 in fantasy points per game (21.5) and has not landed below the QB4 mark in that measure in any season since. Yowza! Moreover, Hurts boasts the second-highest fantasy PPG average (22.0) over this span, ahead of fellow turbo-scooter Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens at 21.7, according to Stathead.

Just want to focus on Hurts’ legs? Fine, because he actually leads the entire NFL in rushing touchdowns (52) since 2021 Yes, that includes running backs, with human bulldozer Derrick Henry following closely behind at 51. Plus, Hurts’ average of 44.8 rushing yards per game is fourth among quarterbacks during these four years.

Stay with me here, but that rushing yards average sits eerily close to that of ex-Broncos running back Javonte Williams (44.3), a player who conveniently also debuted in 2021. If you choose to think of Hurts as a sort of “two-for-one combo,” it’s as though you’re getting all of his passing stats with a guaranteed bonus equivalent to one Javonte Williams’ worth of rushing every week. Is that not awesome?

Sure, Williams hasn’t panned out as many once hoped, but meh, this is a fun lens to view the Konami Code through. Arm stuff + legs stuff = more fantasy points. Sorry/not sorry if that didn’t make a lot of sense.

Either way, what’s not to like here? This is about as good a track record as you’re going to get from a quarterback. And if personal touch is more your speed, know that Hurts has been a fixture of the fantasy team I take most seriously for the past two years.

The Case Against Hurts

There aren’t many holes to poke in Hurts’ game for fantasy purposes. He does so much with his rushing that he’s pretty safe. The most significant concern he faced this offseason was the potential banning of the famed Tush Push, and the NFL didn’t get enough votes to pass that rule change — condolences to the haters.

But if there’s something to focus on, it’s that he might not throw the ball enough. Fantasy managers are in for a bad time should Hurts not run as often or see major regression in rushing touchdowns for any reason. Granted, there’s no reason to think he would; this is a hypothetical, but let’s just explore it anyway.

The Eagles attempted the second-fewest passes (448) in the NFL last year and registered the lowest pass rate over expectation (-8.7%) of any team, according to NFELO. Hurts himself logged a career-low 361 of those attempts in 15 starts, down from a whopping 538 the year prior in 17 starts. His previous low was 432 in his first season at the helm (also 15 starts). This isn’t some small thing we’re talking about!

And to get out ahead of the possible question, no, the “run-heavy” approach isn’t a hallmark of the Kellen Moore experience. He oversaw some robust aerial attacks during his tenure as the Dallas Cowboys’ offensive coordinator, ranking within the top 10 in total pass attempts each season between 2019 and 2021, so this dearth of passing wasn’t like a “system” thing or whatever.

Saquon Barkley is almost definitely what caused this shift. Coaches adapt their approach based on the personnel they’ve got to work with, and when you add a guy like Barkley to the fold, you heavily feature him. So, it’s reasonable to guess that this is the new norm in Philly, even with Moore now gone to coach the Saints.

Again, all purely hypothetical, but it’s a scary proposition if the running doesn’t happen out of nowhere. You’re not relying on Hurts for his arm. That’s not why you draft him. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen.

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders

The Case for Daniels

The football world doesn’t simply hand out awards like Offensive Rookie of the Year for no reason. It’s a major accolade, and most players who’ve received the honor this century have gone on to some memorable careers, and Jayden Daniels is poised to carry on this tradition.

Finishing as the QB6 in fantasy points per game (21.7) and as QB5 overall, the former Heisman Trophy winner found immediate success with the Washington Commanders. He even led them to the NFC Championship, only to be stopped by the guy we just got finished talking about. No small feat!

But let’s get into it purely from a numbers perspective. Daniels posted the ninth-highest passer rating (100.1) among qualified quarterbacks last year, while also putting up a nice 69.0% completion rate that ranked sixth-best. Very reliable with his arm, but like Hurts, the bulk of his value came from his legs.

In addition to finishing 2024 with the second-most rushing yards (891) of any quarterback, that benchmark broke the previous rookie record set by Robert Griffin III during the 2012 season. Tucking and taking off was a staple of Daniels’ play, as evidenced by leading the league in scramble rate (12.0%). The guy knows where his bread is buttered and goes for it.

Plus, now that the team gave Daniels some extra help in the form of ex-Niners multipurpose star Deebo Samuel, fantasy managers should feel some relief around the concerns that the Commanders’ offense doesn’t have enough firepower (which we’ll talk about shortly).

The Case Against Daniels

Anecdotally speaking, Daniels throws a beautiful pass. The sad news is that fantasy managers didn’t get to see him do a considerable amount of that as a rookie, as the Washington Commanders attempted the 12th-fewest passes (550) in the NFL last season.

That’s not something you’d assume from a team with Kliff Kingsbury as its offensive coordinator, given his history with the relentless all-out attack he ran at Texas Tech with Patrick Mahomes (among others) in the college ranks from 2013 to 2018, but that’s not really been his “thing” in the pros.

For context, Kyler Murray never threw for 4,000 yards or more than 26 touchdowns across the four seasons Kingsbury was the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals from 2019 to 2022. I mean, Murray still hasn’t done either of those things in the time since, but examples are good and helpful — kind of the point of what we’re doing here.

Don’t take this as some sort of criticism, by the way. The Commanders’ passing game landed ninth-best in our DVOA metrics, so it’s not like they were an ineffective bunch. Daniels just didn’t throw a lot. There’s no harm in only tossing 3,568 passing yards (15th highest) and 25 touchdowns (10th most), but it does mean his legs do some heavy lifting for fantasy.

Now, the lack of quality players to throw to outside of wideout Terry McLaurin and the 34-year-old version of tight end Zach Ertz likely didn’t help matters. It’s certainly not ideal to have your cursory options come in the forms of Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus and rookie Luke McCaffrey. We can only hope the addition of Samuel gives Daniels a reliable short-to-intermediate level target to depend on. Still, even he’s shown some waning effectiveness over the past few seasons. Was Samuel enough of an upgrade to give Daniels what he needs to fully take off?

To be clear, I don’t see any reason why Daniels wouldn’t run as often as he did in 2024. This is some hypothetical worrying like we did with Hurts. Fantasy managers are going to get a ton of great production out of him, but what if the passing doesn’t come along?

Considering you’re paying the ADP QB3 price tag to get him, you’d hope Daniels can keep up with the likes of Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen. That’s not guaranteed, though, and it’s a steep cost to pay if this doesn’t pan out.

The Verdict: Jalen Hurts

If nearly two-thirds of the league votes to try and stop you specifically from doing a thing that makes it really easy to score rushing touchdowns, that should say something. Feels like a slam-dunk for Hurts when you look at it that way.

I understand the preference for Daniels in dynasty formats (two years younger, etc.), but this is about season-long leagues for 2025. I’ll take the veteran at a slightly cheaper cost. You’re not going wrong either way though, honestly.