PrizePicks picks for NFL Week 1 — Monday Night Football

The first Sunday of the 2020 NFL season has come and gone but luckily, we’re graced with an additional pair of games Monday night, featuring the first primetime double-header of the season. With that being the case, PrizePicks has posted a massive 28-pick slate to round out Week 1.

My focus for this article will be around a site called “PrizePicks,” a creative new way to parlay picks based on expected fantasy point production.

The format is simple. You pick two, three, or four players and predict whether or not they will go over or under their projected fantasy point total.

When parlaying the players, the larger your parlay, the better the payout:

• Two-pick entry pays 2.5x (max entry: $400)
• Three-pick entry pays 5x (max entry: $200)
• Four-pick entry pays 10x (max entry: $100)

As a bonus offer, there is a “flex play” option that still rewards you for hitting some of your picks, only with a lesser payout.

I will provide a trio of picks that I think carry value Monday, as well as list out a few additional picks to round out a pool for your entries.

The scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. NYG)

Projected score: 18.5; the pick: OVER

There aren’t many more favorable ways to open up a season than against a New York Giants secondary, something Roethlisberger has the privilege of doing in his first game since Week 2 of 2019. The Giants ranked in the bottom-third of the league in passing touchdowns allowed (30) and interceptions made (10), while ranking bottom-five in total passing yards allowed last season.

On top of the exploitable matchup, the Steelers’ offense has a completely different approach with and without Roethlisberger over the last two seasons. Per the FTN NFL splits tool, the Steelers average 12.14 more pass attempts (up to 42.78), 123.2 more passing yards per game (up to 303.56), and almost a full passing touchdown (0.92) more with Roethlisberger on the field. Given the sheer volume of the passing game against an exploitable secondary that now lost both Eli Apple and Janoris Jenkins, Roethlisberger should coast to the over here.

James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. NYG)

Projected score: 16.5; the pick: OVER

While Conner’s 2019 season was a disappointment due to injuries and overall lackluster play by the Steelers, 2020 carries a new sense of optimism with his clean bill of health (so far) and the return of his starting quarterback. Conner has been exponentially more effective with Roethlisberger on the field over the last two seasons, as shown below using the FTN Splits tool:

Receiving a boost in just about every statistical category, the simple presence of Roethlisberger gives Conner a great shot at the over Monday. On top of that, the matchup with the Giants presents a heap of upside, as they allowed the fourth most rushing touchdowns (19) and ranked in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed in 2019. 

With the Steelers being a 6-point favorite, the projected gamescript points toward a heavy workload for Conner, rounding out a smash-spot for the fourth-year back.

Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee Titans (vs. DEN)

Projected score: 8.5; the pick: UNDER

Year after year, Davis is dubbed as a post-hype sleeper. He even had some of those same rumblings heading into the 2020 season. Unfortunately, if 2020 is going to be his breakout season, it’s likely not going to start in Week 1. Davis is slotted to line up against newly acquired A.J. Bouye of the Denver Broncos and rates out with the worst matchup grade (55.5) of all Tennessee receivers, per Jeff Ratcliffe’s WR/CB Matchup Tool. Not only does the matchup put him at an immediate disadvantage, the fact that the Titans ran the ball at the third-highest clip in 2019 (48.79%) and the emergence of WR1 A.J. Brown severely cap the target ceiling for Davis.

Add all of this into the fact that he remains questionable for the game with a tweaked hamstring, Davis could be looking at a limited role if active. 8.5 points is not an astronomical number, but it’s also one that Davis topped only five times in 2019, making this an easy play for the under.

Other options: Diontae Johnson (o10.8), Drew Lock (o15.0), Brandon McManus (u8.5), Chris Boswell (o8.0)