NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/25)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops, and Merry Christmas! Regardless of which holiday(s) you may or may not celebrate, Christmas is always special for NBA fans. The league makes sure there is a game for us to watch from noon ET through midnight or later, and all the games are marquee matchups. Almost all of the league’s star players will be in action against another star player and a team they might have to face in the playoffs. It’s truly one of my favorite gifts, and I thank Adam Silver for it.

As great as all that sounds, do you know what’s even better? Winning money, and that’s why we’re here. I’m intrigued by all five games, but there is one that has caught my eye as a bettor.

Here’s my breakdown of that game and my best bet for the day. Of course, I may make some additions, so make sure you’re in the FTN Discord to get those picks if/when I post them. For now, enjoy this winner.

NBA Best Bets for Christmas Day

Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks

Current Line – Mavericks -5, 221
My Projection – Mavericks 114, Timberwolves 106
Key Injuries – None

The Timberwolves are a mess. After trading away Karl-Anthony Towns, they were expected to look different and take maybe a small step backward, but it has been a big change and not for the better. After winning over 68% of their games last season, they are just 14-14 and have lost their last three games and they were not close losses. Looking deeper at the team’s performance only Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle have been a net positive for the team. Rudy Gobert has been neutral for the most part and the rest of the team have been negatives. More specifically, Jaden McDaniels and Donte DiVincenzo are playing some of the worst basketball of their careers. Maybe Edwards can get the team focused and ready to rise to the occasion of playing on Christmas, but that’s certainly not something you should bet on happening. The underlying metrics of this team show an average squad, not the potential Western Conference contender we all expected.

The Mavericks have dealt with injuries and struggled to start the season. They won just five of their first 12 games, but 14-3 since with wins over some of the league’s best teams. Everyone is healthy and the Mavericks are playing their fourth consecutive game at home, and teams tend to play better the longer they stay in their home arena. Offenses are more efficient in familiar surroundings and that only gets better with repetition. I rate them much more highly than the Timberwolves who the Mavericks beat earlier this season in Minnesota as underdogs. There are few teams that matchup well with Dallas, but they are a particularly tough matchup for Minnesota given how poorly McDaniels and DiVincenzo have been playing. They will be responsible for guarding Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving for long stretches of the game and I’m not sure that’s a good thing for the Timberwolves. I make the Mavericks eight-point favorites, and we get a chance to lay just five points. Let’s do it.

Bet

Dallas Mavericks -5 (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)

If you have any questions about other games, drop them in the #nba-betting channel of the FTN Discord and tag me @noopschristenson. I’ll be sure to get back to you ASAP.