Week 10 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

That’s how we hit a moneyline underdog.

In a week where the favorites went a remarkable 14-1, our Carolina Panthers got to the window with a huge +265 cash after their 23-22 comeback victory over the Saints.

Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. These are high-risk plays for a reason — they will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished.

There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the week. Here’s a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 10 of the 2024 season.

Week 10 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Steelers +3 at Commanders

(+134, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Refreshed and replenished off their bye week, I expect a tough, physical effort from the Steelers team that holds a tenuous half-game lead in the AFC North.

Pittsburgh holds a substantial advantage in defensive DVOA, ranking eighth to Washington’s 26th. While the Steelers are just 20th in offensive DVOA (Washington is second), that number reflects many of the starts from Justin Fields In the two games Russell Wilson has been under center, he has posted four total touchdowns and no turnovers. Pittsburgh posted 26 and 37 points in Wilson’s two starts, winning both games. Those are two of the three highest point totals of the season. Wilson has also thrown for 264 or more yards in both of those games, something Fields did only twice in his six starts. This week’s addition of Mike Williams also gives Wilson another big wide receiver, pairing with George Pickens for two challenging outside weapons.

The Steelers’ run defense is always among the league’s best, and they are one of only four teams that have held their opponents to under 91 rushing yards per game. The Commanders are averaging 163.9 rushing yards per game, third best in the NFL. If they struggle to run the ball, Pittsburgh can make Daniels uncomfortable in the pocket with their pass rush.

The Steelers are 13-4 after a bye week under Mike Tomlin, having won seven straight games after a bye. Per BetLabs, Tomlin is 59-31-3 (65%) ATS, which is relevant given the minimal three-point spread here.

I’m rolling with Tomlin in his lucrative underdog role, grabbing the +134 odds at FanDuel.