NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/2)
Alex Christenson
Now updated with Monday Night Football.
The Denver Broncos easily beat the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, 28-14. It wasn’t even that close, since the Panthers scored their second touchdown with 18 seconds left in the fourth quarter. The Broncos got a great defensive performance and a good day from quarterback Bo Nix But they won the game despite, not because of, running back Javonte Williams
Williams averaged just 2.6 yards per carry against the run defense currently ranked 31st in DVOA. He also had just 2.0 yards per catch on four receptions. Put it all together, and based on current opponent adjustments Williams had one of the 10 worst running back games in our data going back to 1979.
As always, this could change as opponent adjustments change during the season. But it was pretty bad.
Williams’ runs included two carries stuffed at the goal line and two carries on third down that combined to lose two yards. Williams had a terrible day even though backup Jaleel McLaughlin was averaging 5.9 yards per carry on eight carries.
What’s remarkable about the list of the worst running back games is how few of them involved a lot of fumbles. Sure, Sidney Thornton of the Pittsburgh Steelers somehow fumbled four times on just six carries in a 1981 game against the Chiefs, but seven of the top dozen worst running back games by DYAR didn’t feature any fumbles, including Williams this week.
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