FTN NFL Model Best Bet: Week 6
FTN Staff
There are four MLB postseason games on Wednesday’s slate, so there’s plenty of action around the diamond. Below is a list of my favorite MLB picks and props.
The odds change quickly in baseball, so take advantage of our Prop Shop for the best possible odds and our Pick Tracker for all my and FTN picks.
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The Best MLB Bets Today
Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs
(-150, BetMGM)
There’s some juice on this prop, but the Padres have the highest team-implied total on the slate, and Arraez is one of the better hitters in baseball. His 200 hits this season ranked second behind Bobby Witt Jr.’s, and his .314 average ranked fourth. He’s cleared 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs in four of his five postseason games. The Padres have scored 21 runs through three games against the Dodgers and at least four in all five games.
When you look at Arraez’s splits, you’ll see he has a .333/.362/.418 slash line against right-handed pitchers, compared to a .271/.310/.333 line against lefties. Landon Knack is expected to get the ball for Los Angeles. and while he had a decent 9 K/9, his contact rate was 78% and the Padres don’t strike out. The Dodgers’ pitcher has only completed six innings twice this season, and he’s allowed 19 hits in his past 15 innings, so his leash may be short.
Even if the Dodgers decide to go another way from Knack, this may be a bullpen game. Los Angeles’ 4.58 ERA out of the pen was the ninth-highest mark in baseball over the past month.
Bonus
San Diego O 3.5 Runs
(-142, FanDuel Sportsbook)
