Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 3 of the NFL season is upon us, and I already am starting a bit behind at the Westgate, where I had Pats +6.5 in all of my picks. Whoops! I stayed off the +6 at Circa on the Pats since I was stingy like that, and I suppose that worked out for me.
Here are some other ideas for sports betting contest selections this week. Hopefully they work out a little better than Pats +6.5.
Week 3 Circa Millions Picks
New Orleans Saints -3
The story so far has been that everything I did in the offseason was sharp, and all of the DFS teams I’ve done so far this season have been terrible. My best ball teams have about a +200% ROI, and I don’t want to do the calculations for my ROI right now at DFS.
One of the other sharp things I did over the summer was buy Saints futures. They rank first for DVOA and fourth for DAVE, which adjusts DVOA at the early part of the season to take into account the small sample size. In contrast, the Eagles are 19th in DAVE; their offense is fun and has a lot of big names, but the team does have some serious issues on defense.
I just think the Saints continue to get it done against the Eagles, who are likely without dynamic playmaker A.J. Brown. Our betting model seems to agree and thinks the Saints are a good bet at -3.
Tennessee Titans -2
I think this Titans team just isn’t that bad; they really kept up with a Jets team that just showed it’s not the same old Jets Thursday night. In contrast, the Packers likely will come back down to earth without Jordan Love. They lucked out last week with the Colts abandoning an effective run game against them. Most bookmakers already have this line at -2.5, so there’s some good stale line value with Titans -2 as well.
Atlanta Falcons +3.5
Our betting model likes this choice as well, and I think the NFC South is just really showing up this season. The public seems to be blindly following the Chiefs, and this just seems to be a good opportunity to fade the squares here. Despite the public money on the Chiefs, the books generally have the Falcons at +3, so there’s a very important half point of value here too.
