Week 2 Quick Reads: Murray’s Law

Geno Smith may have led the NFL in passing yardage on Sunday, but Kyler Murray was the best quarterback of the day by almost any advanced metric. Murray completed 17 of 21 passes for 266 yards and three touchdowns, adding five runs for 59 yards on the ground.

Murray doesn’t have a bigger lead over the rest of the league in DYAR because he only had those 21 pass attempts. DYAR is a volume stat, so the more you throw, the higher you score, as long as you play well. Murray led the league with 173 pass DYAR. Smith was second at 148 pass DYAR, but he threw 43 passes, more than twice as many as Murray.

You can see how good Murray was with DVOA, which is a rate stat. Murray’s 11.7 net yards per pass with no turnovers got him a 109.6% passing DVOA. That’s far ahead of Smith, who had a 38.3% passing DVOA. And yet, Murray did not have the highest passing DVOA of the week! That belongs to a quarterback who had even fewer attempts: Malik Willis of the Green Bay Packers.

Yes, in what might be Matt LeFleur’s greatest coaching job ever, Malik Willis put up 111.0% passing DVOA on Sunday, although it was only on 14 pass attempts. The Packers’ backup ends up finishing fifth for the week with 86 total DYAR. He actually gets negative rushing DYAR for his six carries and 41 yards because only two of the six runs were successful given the down-and-distance. He had two failed scrambles on third-and-10 that gained 3 and 5 yards.

Remember: We still aren’t including opponent adjustments in the stats below. Those will show up after Week 4.

Update: Monday Night Football has now been added.

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith had 91 passing DYAR in the first half, 14 passing DYAR in the second half, but then another 42 passing DYAR in overtime to beat the Patriots… Derek Carr was at 158 passing DYAR through three quarters and then had -54 passing DYAR in the fourth quarter on three passes, one of which was an interception. Given the score, those passes didn’t mean too much. Perhaps we need to strengthen the score adjustments in the individual passing formulas!… Daniel Jones had 89 passing DYAR on third downs. He was 5-of-7 for 72 yards with two touchdowns and two other first downs, plus a 9-yard DPI. That’s probably going to get dropped a bit once the opponent adjustments kick in after Week 4… Malik Willis was 7-of-8 on third downs for 86 passing DYAR. He had 94 of his 122 passing yards on third downs with a touchdown and four other first downs… Lamar Jackson led all quarterbacks with 96 DYAR on passes up the middle, completing 8-of-10 for 102 yards and a touchdown… It’s strange to see Justin Fields with so much positive passing value and then so much negative rushing value. Fields gets dinged for an aborted play that lost 2 yards, a 2-yard loss on second-and-10, a 1-yard scramble on first-and-10, and a run for no gain on third-and-4.

C.J. Stroud had 79 passing DYAR in the first half against Chicago, but -28 passing DYAR in the second half. His net yards per pass went from 8.3 to 3.6… Will Levis added four carries for 38 yards to get 17 rushing DYAR, but he took four sacks as well… Sam Darnold had 37 passing DYAR in the red zone, completing 5-of-6 for 35 yards. He doesn’t get penalized for Aaron Jones’ fumble at the 2 after an 18-yard reception… Gardner Minshew had -91 passing DYAR in the first half against the Ravens, then flipped that around to 93 passing DYAR in the second half. He went from 3.15 net yards per pass in the first half to 8.4 net yards per pass in the second half.

Trevor Lawrence gained 45 rushing yards on two scrambles 12 yards on first-and-10 and 33 yards on third-and-7… Bo Nix had -82 passing DYAR in the red zone. He completed just 1 of 5 passes in the red zone for 2 yards, and he threw an interception in the end zone… Patrick Mahomes threw only two passes listed as middle of the field, and one of those was an interception… Baker Mayfield had four carries for 35 yards with a touchdown on the ground… Bryce Young had 2.5 net yards per pass with an 18% success rate.

Top Running Backs

Alvin Kamara had a rushing success rate of 75%, including conversions on both of his third-down runs (19 total yards on a third-and-2 and a third-and-3)… James Cook had 65 yards on six first-down runs but did get stuffed for no gain on his only third-down carry… De’Von Achane‘s 0 rushing DYAR on 96 yards is a surprise, but he had a lot of runs stuffed for very little gain. Achance had four different losses, another two runs for 0 yards, and then another three runs for 1 yard apiece (none of which came in short-yardage situations). As a receiver, Achane had a 5-yard touchdown and then four different first downs that each gained at least 12 yards… Antonio Gibson was dead to rights in the backfield on second-and-12 in the fourth quarter and somehow turned it into a 45-yard gain… J.K. Dobbins is now second in rushing DYAR on the season behind Kamara.

Lowest Running Back

Swift had three different carries that lost yardage including two that lost 4 yards each. Not one of his carries converted for a new set of downs.

Top Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Rashid Shaheed‘s total includes 10 rushing DYAR for three carries of 13 yards. Here’s video of his 70-yard touchdown in case you have not seen it yet… Calvin Ridley‘s total includes 18 rushing DYAR for a 10-yard touchdown on a jet sweep… Chris Godwin now leads the NFL in receiving DYAR for the season… Marvin Harrison had all four of his catches in the first quarter, with three incomplete passes from the second quarter onward.

Lowest Wide Receiver or Tight End

Irwin was targeted for three different incomplete passes on third-and-medium (third-and-3, third-and-4, and third-and-6) as well as an incomplete pass from the Kansas City 1-yard line.