MLB Best Bets – Free (Monday 9/9)

Edward Cabrera and Ryan Pepiot came through for us last week, as we moved to 11-2 on writeups this MLB season. We’re going to run it back with another teased strikeout parlay for Monday night’s best MLB bet.

MLB Best Bets Today

Charlie Morton has posted his lowest strikeout percentage in almost a decade at 24.5%. While Morton’s swinging-strike percentage of 10.4% has also taken a dip this season, we’ve seen an increase over his last seven starts. Since August 1 (seven starts), we’ve seen the 40-year-old bump up his strikeout percentage to 28% and his swinging-strike percentage up to 11%. He’s gone over five strikeouts in six of his last seven games and now faces a Reds team that has the fourth-highest K rate this season against right-handed pitching at 24.9%. Over the last 14 days, the Reds’ K rate is down to 22.8%, but they’ve had trouble against Morton’s specific pitch mix. The Braves righty has a 33.2% K rate and 33.9% whiff rate on his curveball. Morton is getting whiffs with his changeup as well at 33.1%.

Reds’ 2024 Plate Discipline

Versus curveball: 36% K% (3rd highest) & 34.4% whiff% (fifth-highest)
Versus changeup: 24.5% K% (6th) & 36.4% whiff% (second)
Fifth-lowest chase contact%: (52%)
Ninth-highest whiff%: 26.3%
12th-highest swinging-strike%: (11.2%)

The FTN MLB Model projects Charlie Morton for 5.55 strikeouts against the Reds Monday night.

We’ll be pairing Charlie Morton with another NL East starring pitcher, Cristopher Sanchez. Sanchez and the Phillies take on the Rays in an interleague matchup. Sanchez isn’t a big strikeout guy, posting a K rate just under 20%, but he’s facing a club which has the fifth-highest strikeout percentage against lefties this season. Over the last 30 days, Tampa’s strikeout percentage is still the fifth-highest in baseball, but they’ve bumped up their K rate to 28.7%. Like Morton, Sanchez has increased his punchouts down the stretch, despite seeing more disciplined competition. Sanchez’s two best whiff% pitches are his slider and changeup. His changeup has a 32.5% whiff rate with a 34.5% K rate. His slider has a 30.2.% whiff rate with a 23.5% K%.

Rays’ 2024 Plate Discipline

Lowest zone-contact%: (79.2%)
Eighth-highest chase%: (29.7%)
Fifth-highest whiff%: (27.7%)
Fifth-highest swinging-strike%: (12.1%)

The FTN MLB Model projects Sanchez for 6.60 strikeouts against the Rays Monday night.

Sanchez should go over his baseline prop, but I felt better pairing the two together as we look for win number 11. Be sure to use FTN’s Prop Shop to bet the best available number.