Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season and turn out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
Over the course of the summer, we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong and what we can expect from them going forward.
Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans
An electric rookie out of Tulane, Tyjae Spears landed in an interesting spot during his rookie season. Teaming up with Derrick Henry in Tennessee, it was unclear exactly what his role would be right out of the gate. But even with a Hall of Fame running back in front of him, Spears’ versatility and explosiveness were too much to keep off the field, and he ended up carving out a pretty meaningful role as a rookie.
What Went Wrong
Honestly, given the circumstances, not much. Of course, Spears obviously wasn’t anywhere close to a full-time player. He averaged 8.9 touches per game, logging 53% of the snaps and handling just 24% of Tennessee’s total rush attempts. He only reached the 60% snap share ark in four games last season, while his season-high in carries was 9. And although Tennessee was a bad team last year, Spears wasn’t much of a factor in the few games they did win. In fact, he averaged just 7.6 touches per game in wins last season, as well as just 3.3 carries per game in contests the Titans won by six-plus points.
What Went Right
Spears made the most of his opportunities as a rookie. Behind a below-average Tennessee offensive line, Spears still managed to average 5.5 yards per touch, sixth best in the league. His 7.0% breakaway run rate was top-five in football and according to FTN Data, Spears’ 5.0% juke rate was fourth-best among all running backs with at least 50 rushing attempts. 13% of his carries went for 10-plus yards, while Spears also ranked top-15 in avoided tackle rate and yards before contact per attempt.
He was also dynamic as a receiver out of the backfield. His 70 targets were the ninth-most among running backs, while Spears also ranked ninth in receptions (52), 11th in receiving yards (385), seventh in target share (14.7%) and 11th in yards per route run (1.52). His efficiency in the passing game took Henry off the field, as Spears, as a rookie, played 94% of the snaps on long down and distances, as well as 81% in the two-minute drill.
Prognosis Entering 2024
For a minute, it looked like Spears was set to be a top-15 fantasy running back in 2024. The Titans moved on from Derrick Henry, and while we expected them to add to the position in some capacity, Spears was set to lead this backfield. But early on in free agency, Tennessee agreed to a deal with Tony Pollard, crushing the hopes and dreams of many. And while Pollard’s presence caps Spears’ immediate upside, you shouldn’t get too low on the sophomore running back.
New head coach Brian Callahan and company have already stated that this is going to be a 1A/1B situation in Tennessee. Offensive coordinator Nick Holz said that the team sees Pollard and Spears as “interchangeable” and both players will get plenty of carries. If that holds true, it is already a better situation than last year for Spears, especially if he maintains the passing-down role. The Titans offensive philosophy is changing this season, too, likely relying more on the pass than they have in quite some time. It sure sounds like Spears is in line for more carries this season, while I’d expect his receptions to hover around the same mark as last year.
Dynasty Outlook
If the Titans didn’t bring in Pollard, it would be a lot more difficult to acquire Spears in a trade right now. And even though there is some concern that he won’t ever become a featured player in an offense, especially with his ACL issues, Spears is still a talented 23-year-old running back coming off a successful rookie campaign. The usage we expect to see from him might just be the perfect amount for his career and given his dynamic ability, Spears can be fantasy relevant on 10-12 touches per game. Spears should be considered a top-25 dynasty running back at the moment.
