Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course, they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to breaking out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turned out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer, we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong, and what we can expect from them going forward.
Rochon Johnson, RB, Chicago Bears
The hype surrounding Roschon Johnson heading into the 2023 season was palpable. David Montgomery left Chicago for division-rival Detroit in free agency, leaving just Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman (one of fantasy football’s greatest what-ifs) as Johnson’s backfield competition. The opportunity was there to step into a sizable role and potential lead back duties.
Although he only saw five rushing attempts in Week 1, Johnson saw heavy involvement in the passing game, catching six passes on seven targets for 35 yards. He totaled 20 rushing yards on the minimal touches, combining for 55 total yards and rushing for a touchdown in his first NFL game. Johnson appeared to have carved a role out in the offense.
Opportunity arose for Johnson throughout the season. Foreman was a healthy scratch in Weeks 2-5. Herbert spent time on the IR due to a high-ankle sprain. Even Travis Homer missed time with a hamstring injury. However, inconsistent play and injury prevented him from becoming the backfield lead many hoped for.
What Went Wrong
After seven targets in Week 1, he saw four or more targets in just four games. Those six catches? Try three games with three or more catches for the rest of the season. He didn’t exceed 15 receiving yards again until Week 12 and had a total for four games with 20 or more receiving yards. Johnson received double-digit rushing attempts once during his rookie season and averaged a paltry 4.3 yards per carry. He was somewhat unlucky, suffering a concussion and missing time the same week Herbert and Homer went down with injuries. But even when given the touches, Johnson didn’t produce.
What Went Right
Eh … he has a nice smile? That’s about it. The Week 1 rushing touchdown was lovely, but it was scored in a game already out of reach with less than three minutes left on the clock. Johnson did show flashes in the passing game and led the Bears backfield in targets (40), catches (34) and receiving yards (209). However, he failed to score a touchdown through the air.
Prognosis Entering 2024
Johnson’s lack of production rushing the ball, paired with the Bears’ run-heavy, low-scoring offense, kept him from becoming the fantasy darling he was crowned during the offseason. Simply put, he failed to seize the opportunities when they presented themselves. Herbert is still on the team, and while Foreman didn’t return, Chicago signed D’Andre Swift, who likely takes over lead-back duties.
Dynasty Outlook
While I’m not holding my breath for Johnson to become a weekly fantasy mainstay, he does present an interesting opportunity as a post-hype buy who can be had for cheap. Chicago’s offense is set up to improve in 2024 after drafting Caleb Williams first overall, trading for Keenan Allen and drafting Rome Odunze. That’s a lot of competition for passes, but if he can carve out a role as the pass-catching back for the Bears, he could be serviceable in PPR leagues and worth a low-risk investment.
