Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turns out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong, and what we can expect from them going forward.
Keaton Mitchell, RB, Baltimore Ravens
The undrafted Keaton Mitchell accomplished something impressive when he made the 53-man Ravens roster to start the season. But after a five-week injured reserve stint, he quickly reset expectations for his rookie season and career. Mitchell ripped off runs for 39, 40 and 60 yards in his first 10 carries. And he finished an abbreviated freshman year with 8.4 yards per attempt, the highest rate among backs with 45 or more carries.
What Went Wrong
Mitchell had little to critique on the field. He never even fumbled. But the reason his rookie season was abbreviated was that he tore his ACL in a mid-December matchup with the Jaguars. He has since had a successful surgery, and head coach John Harbaugh told reporters in March that he was doing well in his recovery. But even with the improved nine-month recovery schedule of many modern players with the same injury, Mitchell will likely miss the start of the 2024 season and could see a reduced workload when he does return to play.
What Went Right
I think it’s mandatory to start a “what went right” list with Mitchell’s outlier 8.4 yards per attempt. You can nitpick that rate. Mitchell built his extreme efficiency on a small sample of 47 carries. And he likely benefited from the defensive attention that Lamar Jackson draws with his passing and rushing versatility. Ravens running backs have averaged 2.3 yards before contact per attempt with Jackson on the field the last two seasons, ninth highest and in a top 10 with other dual threat quarterbacks like Josh Allen (2.7), Jalen Hurts (2.6), and Kyler Murray (2.2). Mitchell ranked second with 3.9 average yards before contact in 2023. But the rookie finished a modest 17th of 71 qualifiers with 46% of his yards coming before contact. Gold- and silver-medalists James Cook and De’Von Achane produced much less sustainable rates of 61% and 58%. Mitchell seemed to earn the lion’s share of his yards with his standout 4.37-second speed and elusiveness.
Meanwhile, Mitchell was similarly efficient averaging 10.3 yards on nine receptions. Even with some expected regression, he looks like a rare back that could threaten fantasy relevance on 10 or fewer touches per game.
Prognosis Entering 2024
Mitchell will likely start 2024 late and slowly coming off his December torn ACL. But even if the sophomore were fully healthy, he would face major competition from his new Ravens teammate Derrick Henry. The veteran may have lost a step in his approach to his now 30 years of age. But Henry still saw a 63% carry share with the Titans in 2023 that was sixth highest at his position. The Ravens have leaned on committees in the Lamar Jackson era, but you can bet they will have their new star back carry an outsized workload on his broad shoulders. Mitchell did not see 12 touches in any of his eight games in 2023, and he may not see that in his heaviest workload week in 2024, either.
Mitchell has a modest ADP of 57th at his position that reflects his injury and backfield competition concerns. Still, he lacks the short-term ceiling of some of his ADP contemporaries like Chuba Hubbard and Tank Bigsby who conceivably could see 50% carry shares if things broke well for them in their backfields. At least for 2024, Mitchell makes more sense as a daily option or bet target.
Dynasty Outlook
ACL injuries may not be the long-term concerns that they were 15 and 25 years ago. But Mitchell will likely have workload concerns for the rest of his career because of his undersized 5-foot-8 and 179-pound frame. That nets to a 27.3 body mass index. And since 2014, only 7 of the 258 running back seasons with 200 or more touches have come from players with less than a 28.0 BMI.
That said, Mitchell teased rare athleticism and efficiency in his truncated rookie season, and that should earn him a roster spot in pretty much any size or format dynasty league. Mitchell looks like an even more extreme De’Von Achane. And in an era when teams are less and less reliant on bell-cow backs, Mitchell’s plausible career peak of 10-15 touches per game could easily earn him RB3 fantasy value. Try to trade for him now before he reminds everyone how electric he is when he’s healthy.
