Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turns out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong, and what we can expect from them going forward.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
It was shocking to see the Seattle Seahawks break the wide receiver seal in the 2023 NFL Draft. Seattle was rumored to be looking to the future on offense, just at quarterback, not wide receiver. A run-first offense with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett already on the roster wasn’t the ideal landing spot for first-year fantasy production, and that proved to be true. A rookie statline of 63 receptions, 628 receiving yards and four touchdowns is hardly anything to get excited about, but there were flashes of his sky-high potential.
What Went Wrong
The team he was drafted to. Joining a wide receiver corps with a budding superstar and perennially underrated veteran was already a less-than-ideal situation. But the Seahawks were also dead last in total plays in 2023, the only team to run fewer than 1,000 (995). The cherry on top? Former head coach Pete Carroll’s football philosophy: run the ball and stop the run. The JSN pick was perplexing for quite a few reasons.
What Went Right
Not a whole lot, but that wasn’t necessarily JSN’s fault. He played in every game of his rookie season, and we saw his big-play ability when given the opportunity. The problem was there wasn’t enough of it. His average depth of target was just 6.1 yards. The talent is tantalizing; the circumstances surrounding him were not. Thankfully (at least for JSN’s fantasy potential), Pete Carroll was ousted as the Seahawks head coach this offseason.
Prognosis Entering 2024
Stock way up. New head coach Mike Macdonald may be defensive-minded, but he made an enthralling hire at offensive coordinator. Ryan Grubb jumps to the NFL from the Washington Huskies, where he held the same title and developed the offense into one of college football’s top passing offenses and highest-scoring teams. His fingerprints were all over the first few rounds of the NFL draft, producing the eighth and ninth overall picks in quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and wide receiver Rome Odunze, as well as wide receivers Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillian in the second and third rounds, respectively. Grubb ran a high-octane offense that emphasizes the big play, averaging over 36 points per game over the past two seasons. It’s yet to be seen precisely how pass-happy Seattle will be under Grubb, but a modern offense will be a breath of fresh air for fantasy purposes.
Dynasty Outlook
A lackluster rookie season has suppressed JSN’s value from where it should be. His future is still incredibly promising, and the stars are aligning for a breakout, potentially as early as this year. Metcalf isn’t going anywhere and is the alpha wide receiver on this team. But Lockett was almost cut this offseason before restructuring his contract. With a $5.3 million roster bonus if Lockett is still on the roster come March 18, 2025, he’ll again be a strong cut-candidate after the season. Even if he’s not cut, Lockett is on the wrong side of his prime and turns 32 in September. If JSN doesn’t officially jump Lockett on the depth chart, chances are he will in the target hierarchy. And with Grubb at the helm, JSN’s situation is brimming with opportunity. Smith-Njigba’s talent is undeniable, and he’s one of my favorite offseason trade targets.
