Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turns out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong, and what we can expect from them going forward.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
Dalton Kincaid was the first tight end drafted in a loaded 2023 class, immediately becoming a fixture of the Bills offense in year one. His 73 catches on the season were the fourth most by a rookie tight end in NFL history, setting a franchise record in receptions by the position.
What Went Right
The Bills spent a premium on Kincaid, who more than exceeded expectations, finishing second on the team in targets (91) and receptions (73), and ranked inside the top 10 in both categories among all tight ends in 2023. Kincaid was one of the few reliable options at a volatile tight end position, averaging the fifth most PPR points per game by a rookie tight end over the past decade (9.4 PPR points per game). From Week 7 on, Kincaid finished as a TE1 in 72.7% of his games (8 out of 11 games), averaging 5-plus receptions (5.1) and 50-plus receiving yards (50.5) during that span.
What Went Wrong
As great as Kincaid’s rookie season was, he was largely a nonfactor playing alongside Dawson Knox in Weeks 1-6, seeing less than four targets a game (3.8), averaging just 3.4 receptions for 23.6 yards during that span. With Knox active, Kincaid posted a 65%-plus snap share in just two out of 13 games (84.6%), playing no more than 62% of snaps in both playoff games.
Prognosis Entering 2024
Kincaid is already priced as a top-five tight end entering 2024, currently being selected at the Round 4/5 turn in early Underdog best ball drafts. Although the ADP may seem a bit rich, it’s hard to overlook his opportunity, likely stepping in as Josh Allen’s No. 1 target in year two. With the departure of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason, the Bills have the second most vacated targets (173) and receiving yards (1,369) in the league, doing very little to address the situation in the offseason. There are very few separators at tight end, but Kincaid is one of only a handful of players at the position projected as the top target on his team.
Dynasty Outlook
At just 24 years old, the ceiling is sky high for Kincaid, who is set up for a breakout campaign in 2024. He’s currently ranked as a top-three tight end in dynasty and for good reason. Kincaid will likely take over as the top target in Buffalo, tied to one of the best quarterbacks in the league for years to come. His combination of youth and opportunity makes him a target for all managers regardless of the situation.
