Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have two Sunday games in the W as we approach the final stretch of the 2024 season. To begin the day, we have the Aces facing off with Angel Reese’s Chicago Sky. The late afternoon game will pin the Sparks hosting the Dallas Wings.
Let’s go over our best bet from this two-game slate.
Satou Sabally Over 17.5 Points
(-130, Caesars Sportsbook)
If you missed the Olympic break, you may not even know about Satou Sabally. The Wings forward missed the first half of the season while recovering from shoulder surgery. However, she made an immediate impact for Germany in the Olympics, averaging 18.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game. Sabally has carried that momentum into the start of her WNBA season, averaging 18.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 5.3 assists in three games. She has averaged 18 points per game and what would be a career-low usage rate of 22.6%. I would suspect her usage climbs back up to her career average of 24.6%. Even a 2% increase can make a major difference. We’re getting a prop line below her season average while seeing an unsustainable floor in usage.
Sabally gets a premium matchup with a Sparks defense allowing the third-highest defensive rating and second-highest opponent field goal percentage. The Sparks have particularly struggled against bigs, allowing opposing forwards to average a league-high 46.6 points per game and a 36.9% opposing three-point percentage. With Sabally posting a 33.3% three-point rate through three games (30% career average), that seems especially notable. I would have Sabally at 19.5 points even with the lack of usage and efficient scoring to this point.
