Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have four Sunday games in the W as we approach the month-long Olympic break, which will begin in the middle of the week. Today, we have the wounded Mercury going to play the Sun, the defending champion Aces traveling to Washington DC, Caitlin Clark and the Fever going into Minnesota, and Seattle hosting the Dream.
Let’s go over our best bet from this four-game slate.
Las Vegas Aces -13
(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
It’s never enjoyable taking as many points as the Aces are getting today, especially on the road, but they’ve earned all 13 points. Since the return of Chelsea Gray, the defending back-to-back champions have looked a lot more like defending champions. Before Gray’s return to the lineup, this Aces team was averaging 1.059 points per possession on a 42.8% field-goal percentage, 34.4% three-point percentage, while surrendering 1.045 points per possession on an opponent 44.5% field-goal percentage. Since Gray’s return, the Aces are averaging 1.105 points per possession on 48.1% shooting (36.2% from the perimeter), while opponents are now averaging just 0.962 points per possession on 40.8% shooting.
The Aces are 7-2-1 ATS since Gray returned to the lineup on June 19 against Seattle. Prior to her return to the lineup, the Aces were just 3-9-0 ATS. While these two teams met in Washington, D.C. on June 29, a game in which the Aces won 88-77 with the Mystics covering, the Aces saw little production out of Kelsey Plum (two points) and an uncharacteristically poor night from A’ja Wilson (11 points on 4-for-15 from the field). The Mystics continue to be without Shakira Austin, Brittney Sykes and Karlie Samuelson. The play here is to continue backing this Aces squad now that they’re fully healthy.
Best Bet
Aces -13
