WNBA Best Bets (Friday 10/18)

We have Game 4 in the WNBA Finals Friday night. It’s been a terrific series thus far, with the Liberty taking Game 3 on a late game-winner from Sabrina Ionescu. Could Friday be the championship clincher for the Liberty, or will the Lynx extend their season to a decisive Game 5 back in Brooklyn?

Let’s go over our best bet for Game 4.

Minnesota Lynx +3.5

(-110, ESPNBet)

I’m a firm believer that the Liberty will ultimately win this series, but I’m definitely worried that the two games in Minnesota could decide the series. This season, the Lynx are a terrific 37-23 against the spread, in addition to 16-7 against the spread as underdogs. Friday, they are home underdogs, getting 3.5 points. Lastly, they are 4-1 against the spread as home underdogs, in addition to 3-2 outright.

The Lynx being as good as they have been should come as no surprise. Napheesa Collier played like an MVP candidate all season, and if not for A’ja Wilson’s historical season, would have absolutely been in the conversation. Her supporting cast includes Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, Alanna Smith and Bridget Carleton, all of whom provide solid experience as veterans.

That said, the Liberty are obviously a different animal. They have two former WNBA MVPs in Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones, in addition to Sabrina Ionescu, Betnijah Laney, rising star Leonie Fiebich and veteran Courtney Vandersloot.

This season, it has been the Lynx who have gotten the better of the Liberty, with a 5-2 record against the spread (4-3 outright). Given Minnesota’s stellar record against the spread this season, their success in this matchup overall, in addition to having the best player on the floor at the moment in Napheesa Collier, I’ll take the points on the Lynx at home and would not fault anyone for taking them outright as well.