Week 17 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

We turn the page to Week 17 to restart our hot moneyline stream from just three weeks ago. Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. These are high-risk plays for a reason — they will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. 

There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the week. Here’s a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 17 of the 2024 season.

Week 17 Moneyline Underdogs

Steelers +3 vs. Chiefs

(+136, FanDuel Sportsbook)

What better way to get back on the winning moneyline trail than going to the old reliable Pittsburgh Steelers?

Kansas City has escaped the jaws of defeat on numerous occasions this season and now travel to frigid Pittsburgh on a short week. The Chiefs need just one win or Buffalo loss in the final two games to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. But Pittsburgh has much more motivation after the loss to the Ravens — if the Steelers wins their last two games, they win the AFC North. 

Pittsburgh will get a huge boost to the offense with the likely return of wide receiver George Pickens Without Pickens, Pittsburgh is extremely limited in their passing attack, as teams have crowded the line to limit the run without that deep threat possibility. 

The Steelers pass rush has been getting hot, averaging 2.3 sacks per game in their last three contests and 2.8 sacks per game at home. Even with cornerback Joey Porter Jr. likely out against Kansas City, the Steelers pass rush can pressure Mahomes into turnovers and give Pittsburgh’s offense short fields to navigate. 

The last part of any Steelers moneyline bet is the incredible success of head coach Mike Tomlin. Tomlin has been superb as a home underdog over his 18-year career with the Steelers. Per John Ewing at BetMGM, Tomlin is cashing as a home underdog ATS 74% of the time, with nine outright victories. Since the 2020 season, the Chiefs are just 16-19-1 (45.7%) ATS as a road favorite. I’m going back to the reliable Mike Tomlin as a home underdog, even against the mighty (but due for a regression) Chiefs. 

Risk

1 Unit to Win 1.36 Units