Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Over the last year or so, I have become a huge fan of showdowns in NFL DFS. The main thing I like about it is how different it is from main slates (unlike the primetime slates). This makes it feel like a different game altogether, instead of a less exciting version of the game we love so much. Showdown requires a different approach, one that in many ways is simpler than how we approach main slates.
Our showdown lineups should tell a story about how the game will go. However, we also know that our competition is largely trying to do the same. Consequently, my process is to first try to identify the story (or stories) most will use to build their lineups, then I try to identify the story that best leverages the field’s. A perfect example of this came last season when we went with “DK Metcalf and Geno Smith outduel CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott” on the way to a bunch of takedowns.
The process starts by examining what people will do at the team level and how that compares to our projections of what’s optimal. From there, we dive into positional breakdowns and individual player data from our simulations.
New last week: I’ve also added a section that 1. Tries to predict what a chalky lineup looks like and 2. Explains a bit of theory behind why we care so much about the team level data.
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