Tennis DFS plays for the Western & Southern Open Sunday slate

It has been a long five months, but finally, we’ve reached the end of the tunnel. DFS tennis has returned, and in a spectacular way. Over the next three weeks, the ATP and WTA will be in a bubble located in New York for both the Western & Southern Open (Cincinnati) and the US Open. Both events will take place in the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, host of the US Open. Cincinnati uses a Deco Turf hardcourt, so previous results are irrelevant with the USTA’s move to Laykold in New York. Supposedly, the courts are looking extremely quick, contrary to the belief that they might be on the slower side as most Laykold hardcourts are. While names like Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Ash Barty, and Simona Halep are absent, there is still a significant number of high quality names in these fields, and should offer a thrilling three weeks of tennis.

This article will guide you through each slate, focusing on a trio of plays to build your core around (top spend, middle tier, value), along with match predictions for the remainder of the slate, and a power ranked Cheat Sheet so you can see how my confidence level is in each tier. With that, let’s dive into the Sunday slate.

Anett Kontaveit ($9,700)

We begin with the 20th-ranked player in the world in Kontaveit, who will play lucky loser Darya Kasatkina. It’s really a great tune-up for Kontaveit, who already has a runner-up finish in Palermo since the restart, although that was on clay. Kasatkina has one of the worst service games on the WTA tour, holding at just a 55% rate over the last 52 weeks on hardcourts. She’s only breaking opponents service games at a 37% rate as well, a 4% drop from her career average. Overall, it’s just a major drop in level for Kasatkina who is currently 84th in UTR. With her lack of service holds, facing Kontaveit — who has generated the second-most break points per set (4.1) among the top 50 players over the last 52 weeks — doesn’t bode well for her chances. She also broke opponents more than any other top-50 player in that 52-week timespan, so as you could probably figure out, she owned the highest break rate. They met in 2018 (on grass) while Kasatkina was still in form, in which Kontaveit won 6-4, 6-2. Quicker courts should benefit Kontaveit, who will be able to attack Kasatkina’s weak serve. There’s a +190 edge in elo rating while Kontaveit’s UTR sits at 13.11, whereas Kasatkina’s is 12.62.

John Isner ($8,100)

Well, it’s a similar case as Reilly Opelka Saturday — only Isner is priced where his market value is, which is also where elo ratings suggest he belongs. Like Opelka, Isner offers elite ace upside, and one of the highest floors on the slate due to his extreme hold rate (93.6% over the last 52 weeks). The only difference between Isner and Opelka (other than their prices the last two days) is Opelka is a much better mover, and because of his willingness to play inside the court, he’s able to win more return points, thereby generating more break points. Isner’s path to earning a break is essentially opponents giving the game away via errors. The good news? Hurkacz is 0-5 all time when opponents post an ace rate north of 20%. In Isner’s case, if he plays 50 service points, he’d need 10-plus aces to surpass that number. Hurkacz can keep balls in play, but the way the ball is catapulting off the court, it’s going to be difficult to limit Isner’s aces. He’ll be chalk, but Isner is generally good chalk to eat given the high floor. What I will say is if you’re playing multiple lineups, a hedge lineup with Hurkacz is a good idea.

Caroline Garcia ($7,300)

Lastly, I can’t think of a more perfect matchup. Both Garcia and Sloane Stephens have had about as bad a 52-week split as one can have. Despite Garcia and Stephens being ranked 49th and 37th respectively, their UTRs have them 114th and 130th, so they’ve both spent the last year playing outside a top-100 level. We last saw Garcia in March in Lyon, where she actually won back-to-back matches for the first time since Mallorca last June. Stephens meanwhile, has played a lot during the tour suspension, in the Charleston exhibition and World Team Tennis. Not much changed, as she continued to show poor footwork and errant ball striking from her backhand side. If Garcia hits with depth, and she records deep or very deep returns 4% above the tour average, the speed of this court is going to keep Stephens on her backfoot, where a majority of her errors have come from. Perhaps more good news, Garcia’s dominance rating on hardcourts in 2020 has been recorded at 0.96 after an abysmal 0.89 in 2019, which means her overall play is improving, winning more points, games, etc.

Other match predictions

Sofia Kenin over Alize Cornet
Karolina Pliskova over Veronika Kudermetova
Elise Mertens over Rebecca Peterson
Stefanos Tsitsipas over Kevin Anderson
Emil Ruusuvuori over Sebastian Korda
J.J. Wolf over Richard Gasquet
Jennifer Brady over Jessica Pegula
Oceane Dodin over CiCi Bellis
Marton Fucsovics over Norbert Gombos
Iga Swiatek over Christina McHale
Andrey Rublev over Daniel Evans
Marie Bouzkova over Anna Kalinskaya
Karen Khachanov over Alexander Bublik
Marketa Vondrousova over Laura Siegemund
Casper Ruud over Diego Schwartzman
David Goffin over Borna Coric
Tennys Sandgren over Lorenzo Sonego
Shuai Zhang over Yulia Putintseva
Danielle Collins over Jil Teichmann
Ugo Humbert over Grigor Dimitrov
Christian Garin over Aljaz Bedene
Magna Linette over Vera Zvonareva
Alison Van Uytvanck over Arantxa Rus
Ons Jabeur over Leylah Fernandez
John Millman over Adrian Mannarino
Mackenzie McDonald over Marcos Giron
Kirsten Flipkens over Katerina Siniakova

Cheat sheet

(Players are listed in order of preference)

Top tier: Anett Kontaveit, Sofia Kenin, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Jennifer Brady, Karolina Pliskova, Marton Fucsovics, Iga Swiatek, Andrey Rublev, Marketa Vondrousova

Middle tier: John Isner, Marie Bouzkova, Tennys Sandgren, John Millman, David Goffin, Ugo Humbert, Ons Jabeur, Magna Linette

Value tier: Carolina Garcia, Christian Garin, Shuai Zhang, Alison Van Uytvanck, Kirsten Flipkens, Oceane Dodin, Mackenzie McDonald, Danielle Collins, J.J. Wolf, Casper Ruud