Tennis DFS plays for the Western & Southern Open Saturday slate

It has been a long five months, but finally, we’ve reached the end of the tunnel. DFS tennis has returned, and in a spectacular way. Over the next three weeks, the ATP and WTA will be in a bubble located in New York for both the Western & Southern Open (Cincinnati) and the US Open. Both events will take place in the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, host of the US Open. Cincinnati uses a Deco Turf hardcourt, so previous results are irrelevant with the USTA’s move to Laykold in New York. Supposedly, the courts are looking quite quick, contrary to the belief that they might be on the slower side as most Laykold hardcourts are. While names like Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Ash Barty and Simona Halep are absent, there is still a significant number of high-quality names in these fields, and should offer a thrilling three weeks of tennis.

This article will guide you through each slate, focusing on a trio of plays to build your core around (top spend, middle tier, value), along with match predictions for the remainder of the slate, and a power-ranked Cheat Sheet so you can see how my confidence level is in each tier. With that, let’s dive into the Saturday slate.

Reilly Opelka ($10,200)

We begin with one of the serve bots in Opelka. Now, as of this writing matchup, odds haven’t been released, but FanDuel did prematurely add this to their book with Opelka being a -136 favorite. That’s a significant drop from others priced $10,000 or more. Generally, we see better odds take on more ownership, so this could be an interesting case with Opelka who offers a higher floor playing a high volume of tiebreaks, mixing in a high volume of aces. Opelka may well be the king of Laykold. He won the New York Open last year, the UTR Palm Beach Pro Series back in May, and has a trio of ATP Challenger titles on Laykold. His kick serve is virtually unreturnable, and while the lefty Cameron Norrie may have an easier time getting a racket on it, all it will do is set up Opelka for a combo winner from inside the court. Norrie is just 1-9 all time when opponents post an ace rate above 20% (0-5 on hard courts). I actually have Opelka with a 72% win probability, which should have him as a -260 favorite, so he’s priced correctly on DraftKings, but his market value is well under where it should be, making him an excellent DFS option.

Donna Vekic ($9,200)

I will be honest from the beginning here: I have absolutely no idea if Vekic will be facing Victoria Azarenka or a lucky loser (the lucky loser would be Sorana Cirstea), so this is a stellar matchup regardless. I say I have no idea, because in looking at Azarenka’s Instagram, there’s been no confirmation she’s in New York. Of course, because they are in a bubble, if she hasn’t been in New York in the last four days, she would be ineligible to play, per the guidelines. If Vekic plays Azarenka, there’s not a whole lot to say. Azarenka has been battling injuries since last August and had played just two matches in 2020 prior to the shutdown, both of which were convincing straight set losses. In exhibitions, Azarenka played in Charleston on clay, losing twice once again in straight sets, and then made her pro return last week in Lexington, losing to Venus Williams. Her serve, once her biggest weapon, has disappeared, and her inconsistency from the baseline has led to countless unforced errors. Her UTR has plummeted to 12.29 based on her performance since June, meaning she’s playing outside the top 200. Vekic is 2-0 head-to-head and has dominated service play in their two meetings. Now, on the off chance Vekic ends up playing Cirstea, she’s won their two previous meetings at the tour level (neither on hard court). Vekic owns a +150 elo rating advantage, and +90 in hard court elo rating. I have Vekic with a 66.5% win probability in that matchup, so she’s a core play either way here.

Alison Riske ($7,200)

It pains me to do it, but I have to go against my girl Amanda Anisimova, who withdrew in Lexington last week with a shoulder injury. Anisimova is with a new coach (Maria Sharapova’s former hitting partner), and while I love the fit, I’m less convinced her level will be there from the get-go. We saw Anisimova take an extended break last year due to injury and the passing of her father, and there was noticeable rust when she returned to play. Now, Anisimova did play the UTR and Charleston exhibitions. She looked very bad at the UTR event, but looked at her Roland Garros level in Charleston, which was on clay. A quick court could be a problem as Riske thrives on quicker surfaces, whereas Anisimova struggles against pace, especially to her forehand side. Anisimova doesn’t have an elo rating recorded, but Tennis Abstract notes Riske has a 48.5% win probability, while she also has a slight elo rating edge. If Riske sticks to her roots on quick courts, she should roll past a likely less than 100% Anisimova who ranks toward the bottom among top 50 players in service points won and hold rate.

Other match predictions

Filip Krajinovic over Salvatore Caruso
Karolina Muchova over Ann Li
Felix Auger-Aliassime over Nikoloz Basilashvili
Pablo Carreno-Busta over Dusan Lajovic
Ricardas Berankis over Tommy Paul
Dayana Yastremska over Venus Williams
Kevin Anderson over Kyle Edmund
Taylor Fritz over Lloyd Harris
Alex De Minaur over Jan Lennard Struff
Cori Gauff over Maria Sakkari
Veronika Kudermetova over Ajla Tomljanovic
Anastasija Sevastova over Kristina Mladenovic
Elena Rybakina over Ekaterina Alexandrova
Caty McNally over Alize Cornet
Denis Shapovalov over Marin Cilic
Sam Querrey over Milos Raonic
Borna Coric over Benoit Paire
Andy Murray over Frances Tiafoe

Cheat sheet

(Players listed in order of preference)

Top tier: Reilly Opelka, Donna Vekic, Karolina Muchova, Dayana Yastremska, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Filip Krajinovic, Pablo Carreno Busta

Middle tier: Elena Rybakina, Taylor Fritz, Alex De Minaur, Anastasija Sevastova

Value tier: Alison Riske, Andy Murray, Borna Coric, Sam Querrey, Veronika Kudermetova, Ricardas Berankis, Kevin Anderson, Caty McNally