Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Well, we’ve made it to another Grand Slam. After a long two month clay court season, we’ve reached the conclusion in Paris for the French Open. Defending Champion Rafael Nadal will unfortunately miss his first French Open since 2004. Additionally absent on the men’s side includes Matteo Berrettini, Nick Kyrgios, Andy Murray, and 2023 semifinalist Marin Cilic. On the women’s side, Simona Halep, Paula Badosa, Amanda Anisimova, Emma Raducanu, and Ajla Tomljanovic will all miss the event. Iga Swiatek will go for her third Roland Garros title, which would give her the fourth most at Roland Garros in the Open Era. So, let’s dive straight into today’s featured play.
Alexander Zverev -3.5 Game Spread
(-115, 1.15 Units, DraftKings Sportsbook)
As is the case every day throughout the French Open, there is a featured match in the night session, and that is what our focus will be on today. Tonight’s night session will pin Alexander Zverev versus Grigor Dimitrov in a battle of former Top 5 players. If you aren’t familiar with tennis (or even if you are), it has been just over one year since Zverev shattered his ankle in the semifinals of this very event against Rafael Nadal. Frankly, had that unfortunate injury not happened, there’s a very good chance Zverev goes on to win that match, and history is altered, as Nadal would not have collected his 22nd Grand Slam Title.
Fast forward one year, and it appears Zverev has finally found some of his pre-injury form. He had struggled for the greater part of this season, winning three consecutive matches at the same event just once all season (Dubai in February), while compiling a record of just 2-6 versus Top 50 opponents. Well, he’s won three straight this week, while taking out World No. 12 Frances Tiafoe in the previous round. On the other side, there is Grigor Dimitrov, who is playing in the second week of a Slam for just the 13th time in his career, and first since the 2021 Australian Open. Dimitrov, who has battled nagging injuries throughout the entirety of his career, will be entering his third consecutive week of match play, dating back to Geneva where he made the Final last Saturday.
My pick for tonight is for Zverev to cover the 3.5 Game Spread. So far this week, Zverev has looked as good as he has all season, taking out Lloyd Harris, Alex Molcan, and Frances Tiafoe, while dropping just one set. Additionally, Zverev will be playing his third consecutive night session, which is a bit unusual given the tournament generally likes to alternate who they feature.
That said, in the previous two rounds, Zverev has generated 30 break point chances. To me, the slower, heavier night conditions is really benefiting Zverev, who has a little more time in rallies, and given his racket head speed, the ball off his own racket isn’t neutralized quite as much as it is for his opponents, given the pace he can generate. While Dimitrov will be able to redirect, he may be a little more rushed than he’d like, and I have genuine concerns over fatigue from the Bulgarian, who will be playing his eighth match in the last 13 days, with of course, the last four being best of five.
While Dimitrov hasn’t dropped a set during this tournament, he also hasn’t really been tested to this point, with a draw of Timofey Skatov, Emil Ruusuvuori, and Daniel Altmaier. The latter, who in different circumstances may have been a threat to defeat Dimitrov, had been coming off the longest match of his career by over two hours from his previous longest, so the German was almost certainly feeling heavy legs. With Zverev having the tougher draw to this point, and fatigue concerns for Dimitrov, in addition to Zverev having the better understanding of night conditions in Paris, I’ll take the 2022 semifinalist to cover the 3.5 games and continue his run.
